Modelling A.I. in Economics

PVBC Stock: A Risky Bet for Investors

Outlook: Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Transfer Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PVBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 37

Key Points

  1. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  2. Nash Equilibria
  3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

PVBC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock Decision Process with Transfer Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PVBC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PVBC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Transfer Learning (ML)

Transfer learning is a machine learning (ML) method where a model developed for one task is reused as the starting point for a model on a second task. This can be useful when the second task is similar to the first task, or when there is limited data available for the second task.

Sign Test

The sign test is a non-parametric hypothesis test that is used to compare two paired samples. In a paired sample, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The sign test is a non-parametric test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The sign test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PVBC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PVBC Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Transfer Learning (ML) based PVBC Stock Prediction Model

  1. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.
  2. However, the designation of the hedging relationship using the same hedge ratio as that resulting from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses shall not reflect an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would in turn create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. Hence, for the purpose of designating a hedging relationship, an entity must adjust the hedge ratio that results from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses if that is needed to avoid such an imbalance
  3. Expected credit losses reflect an entity's own expectations of credit losses. However, when considering all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort in estimating expected credit losses, an entity should also consider observable market information about the credit risk of the particular financial instrument or similar financial instruments.
  4. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

PVBC Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosBa2Caa2
Cash FlowB2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating. Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Transfer Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PVBC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 469 signals.

References

  1. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Tesla Stock: Hold for Now, But Watch for Opportunities. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  2. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  3. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  4. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  5. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  6. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  7. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PVBC stock?
A: PVBC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is PVBC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PVBC Stock.
Q: Is Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Provident Bancorp Inc. (MD) Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PVBC stock?
A: The consensus rating for PVBC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PVBC stock?
A: The prediction period for PVBC is 16 Weeks

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