Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy SHE Right Now?

Outlook: STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SHE stock is predictable in the short/long term. Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning (ML) method in which the model is trained on both labeled and unlabeled data. The goal of transductive learning is to predict the labels of the unlabeled data. Transductive learning is a hybrid of inductive and semi-supervised learning. Inductive learning algorithms are trained on labeled data only, while semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained on a combination of labeled and unlabeled data. Transductive learning algorithms can achieve better performance than inductive learning algorithms on tasks where there is a small amount of labeled data. This is because transductive learning algorithms can use the unlabeled data to help them learn the relationships between the features and the labels. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 38

Key Points

  1. Short/Long Term Stocks
  2. Can stock prices be predicted?
  3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

SHE Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SHE stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SHE stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Transductive Learning (ML)

Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning (ML) method in which the model is trained on both labeled and unlabeled data. The goal of transductive learning is to predict the labels of the unlabeled data. Transductive learning is a hybrid of inductive and semi-supervised learning. Inductive learning algorithms are trained on labeled data only, while semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained on a combination of labeled and unlabeled data. Transductive learning algorithms can achieve better performance than inductive learning algorithms on tasks where there is a small amount of labeled data. This is because transductive learning algorithms can use the unlabeled data to help them learn the relationships between the features and the labels.

Statistical Hypothesis Testing

Statistical hypothesis testing is a process used to determine whether there is enough evidence to support a claim about a population based on a sample. The process involves making two hypotheses, a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis, and then collecting data and using statistical tests to determine which hypothesis is more likely to be true. The null hypothesis is the statement that there is no difference between the population and the sample. The alternative hypothesis is the statement that there is a difference between the population and the sample. The statistical test is used to calculate a p-value, which is the probability of obtaining the observed data or more extreme data if the null hypothesis is true. A p-value of less than 0.05 is typically considered to be statistically significant, which means that there is less than a 5% chance of obtaining the observed data or more extreme data if the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SHE Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SHE STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Transductive Learning (ML) based SHE Stock Prediction Model

  1. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
  2. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
  3. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss
  4. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

SHE STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Baa2
Income StatementBaa2Ba3
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowCaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating. STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SHE stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 482 signals.

References

  1. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
  2. Friedman JH. 2002. Stochastic gradient boosting. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 38:367–78
  3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  4. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
  5. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
  6. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  7. L. Busoniu, R. Babuska, and B. D. Schutter. A comprehensive survey of multiagent reinforcement learning. IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Part C: Applications and Reviews, 38(2), 2008.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SHE stock?
A: SHE stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is SHE stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SHE Stock.
Q: Is STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for STONEHORSE ENERGY LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SHE stock?
A: The consensus rating for SHE is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SHE stock?
A: The prediction period for SHE is 16 Weeks

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