ST1 Stock: A Risky Investment

Outlook: SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ST1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
2. What is neural prediction?
3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

ST1 Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ST1 stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Sign Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ST1 stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.

Sign Test

The sign test is a non-parametric hypothesis test that is used to compare two paired samples. In a paired sample, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The sign test is a non-parametric test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The sign test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ST1 Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ST1 SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) based ST1 Stock Prediction Model

1. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
2. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.
3. For the purpose of applying the requirement in paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
4. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ST1 SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B1
Income Statement	Ba3	Baa2
Balance Sheet	B3	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba2	Baa2
Cash Flow	Ba1	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba3	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating. SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ST1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 864 signals.

References

1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
2. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
3. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
4. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
5. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
6. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
7. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ST1 stock?
A: ST1 stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is ST1 stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ST1 Stock.
Q: Is SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SPIRIT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS LTD is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ST1 stock?
A: The consensus rating for ST1 is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ST1 stock?
A: The prediction period for ST1 is 4 Weeks

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