Modelling A.I. in Economics

CIM Stock: A Downfall?

Outlook: Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CIM stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 20

Key Points

  1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  3. Can stock prices be predicted?

CIM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CIM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CIM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Statistical Inference (ML)

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.

Chi-Square

A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CIM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CIM Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based CIM Stock Prediction Model

  1. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
  2. In addition to those hedging relationships specified in paragraph 6.9.1, an entity shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to new hedging relationships in which an alternative benchmark rate is designated as a non-contractually specified risk component (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) when, because of interest rate benchmark reform, that risk component is not separately identifiable at the date it is designated.
  3. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.
  4. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CIM Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B3
Income StatementB3C
Balance SheetCaa2B3
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B3 estimated rating. Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CIM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 672 signals.

References

  1. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
  2. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  3. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  4. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Tesla Stock: Hold for Now, But Watch for Opportunities. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  5. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  6. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
  7. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CIM stock?
A: CIM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is CIM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CIM Stock.
Q: Is Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Chimera Investment Corporation Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CIM stock?
A: The consensus rating for CIM is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for CIM stock?
A: The prediction period for CIM is 6 Month

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