CUEN Stock: Is This the End of the Bull Market?

Outlook: Cuentas Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Cuentas Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CUEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for speculative sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of speculative sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of people who are speculating about the future value of an asset, such as a stock or a cryptocurrency. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
2. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

CUEN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Cuentas Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CUEN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CUEN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for speculative sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of speculative sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of people who are speculating about the future value of an asset, such as a stock or a cryptocurrency. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.

Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CUEN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CUEN Cuentas Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) based CUEN Stock Prediction Model

1. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.
2. If the group of items does have offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of sales and expenses denominated in a foreign currency hedged together for foreign currency risk) then an entity shall present the hedging gains or losses in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. Consider, for example, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a net position of foreign currency sales of FC100 and foreign currency expenses of FC80 using a forward exchange contract for FC20. The gain or loss on the forward exchange contract that is reclassified from the cash flow hedge reserve to profit or loss (when the net position affects profit or loss) shall be presented in a separate line item from the hedged sales and expenses. Moreover, if the sales occur in an earlier period than the expenses, the sales revenue is still measured at the spot exchange rate in accordance with IAS 21. The related hedging gain or loss is presented in a separate line item, so that profit or loss reflects the effect of hedging the net position, with a corresponding adjustment to the cash flow hedge reserve. When the hedged expenses affect profit or loss in a later period, the hedging gain or loss previously recognised in the cash flow hedge reserve on the sales is reclassified to profit or loss and presented as a separate line item from those that include the hedged expenses, which are measured at the spot exchange rate in accordance with IAS 21.
3. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
4. The significance of a change in the credit risk since initial recognition depends on the risk of a default occurring as at initial recognition. Thus, a given change, in absolute terms, in the risk of a default occurring will be more significant for a financial instrument with a lower initial risk of a default occurring compared to a financial instrument with a higher initial risk of a default occurring.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CUEN Cuentas Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B3
Income Statement	B3	C
Balance Sheet	C	B3
Leverage Ratios	B1	Ba3
Cash Flow	Baa2	C
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Cuentas Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 estimated rating. Cuentas Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CUEN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 589 signals.

References

1. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
2. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
3. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
4. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
6. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
7. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CUEN stock?
A: CUEN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Speculative Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is CUEN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CUEN Stock.
Q: Is Cuentas Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Cuentas Inc. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CUEN stock?
A: The consensus rating for CUEN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CUEN stock?
A: The prediction period for CUEN is 3 Month

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