ELP Stock: A Downfall?

Outlook: Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares) is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Independent T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ELP stock is predictable in the short/long term. CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Key Points

1. Prediction Modeling
2. Trading Interaction
3. Trading Signals

ELP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of ELP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 1 Year $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ELP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.

Independent T-Test

An independent t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two independent samples. In an independent t-test, the data points in each sample are not related to each other. The independent t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The independent t-test is also a two-sample test, which means that it compares the means of two independent samples.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ELP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ELP Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares)
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) based ELP Stock Prediction Model

1. An entity applies IAS 21 to financial assets and financial liabilities that are monetary items in accordance with IAS 21 and denominated in a foreign currency. IAS 21 requires any foreign exchange gains and losses on monetary assets and monetary liabilities to be recognised in profit or loss. An exception is a monetary item that is designated as a hedging instrument in a cash flow hedge (see paragraph 6.5.11), a hedge of a net investment (see paragraph 6.5.13) or a fair value hedge of an equity instrument for which an entity has elected to present changes in fair value in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 (see paragraph 6.5.8).
2. In accordance with the hedge effectiveness requirements, the hedge ratio of the hedging relationship must be the same as that resulting from the quantity of the hedged item that the entity actually hedges and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge that quantity of hedged item. Hence, if an entity hedges less than 100 per cent of the exposure on an item, such as 85 per cent, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from 85 per cent of the exposure and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge those 85 per cent. Similarly, if, for example, an entity hedges an exposure using a nominal amount of 40 units of a financial instrument, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from that quantity of 40 units (ie the entity must not use a hedge ratio based on a higher quantity of units that it might hold in total or a lower quantity of units) and the quantity of the hedged item that it actually hedges with those 40 units.
3. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.
4. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ELP Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares) Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	B2
Income Statement	Baa2	C
Balance Sheet	B1	B2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Caa2
Cash Flow	B3	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba3	Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares) is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 estimated rating. Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ELP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 592 signals.

References

1. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, Newey W. 2017. Double/debiased/ Neyman machine learning of treatment effects. Am. Econ. Rev. 107:261–65
2. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
3. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
4. A. K. Agogino and K. Tumer. Analyzing and visualizing multiagent rewards in dynamic and stochastic environments. Journal of Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 17(2):320–338, 2008
5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. S&P 500: Is the Bull Market Ready to Run Out of Steam?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
6. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
7. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ELP stock?
A: ELP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is ELP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend ELP Stock.
Q: Is Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Companhia Paranaense de Energia (COPEL) American Depositary Shares (each representing one Unit consisting one Common Share and four non-voting Class B Preferred Shares) is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ELP stock?
A: The consensus rating for ELP is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the prediction period for ELP stock?
A: The prediction period for ELP is 1 Year

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