HEP Stock: A Sinking Ship?

Outlook: Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Pearson Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. Can machine learning predict?
3. Short/Long Term Stocks

HEP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of HEP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HEP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for emotional trigger/responses analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of emotional trigger/responses analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the emotional triggers that cause people to experience certain emotions, and to identify the responses that people typically exhibit when they experience those emotions. This information can then be used to develop more effective emotional support systems, to improve the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems, and to create more engaging and immersive entertainment experiences.

Pearson Correlation

Pearson correlation, also known as Pearson's product-moment correlation, is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables. It is a statistical measure that assesses the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The sign of the correlation coefficient indicates the direction of the relationship, while the magnitude of the correlation coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship. A correlation coefficient of 0.9 indicates a strong positive correlation, while a correlation coefficient of 0.2 indicates a weak positive correlation.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HEP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HEP Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) based HEP Stock Prediction Model

1. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
2. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
3. Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
4. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

HEP Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Income Statement	B3	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	C	Baa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba1	B2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HEP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 683 signals.

References

1. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
3. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
4. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
5. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
6. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
7. Dudik M, Langford J, Li L. 2011. Doubly robust policy evaluation and learning. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 1097–104. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HEP stock?
A: HEP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is HEP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold HEP Stock.
Q: Is Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Holly Energy Partners L.P. Common Stock is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HEP stock?
A: The consensus rating for HEP is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for HEP stock?
A: The prediction period for HEP is 8 Weeks

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