IIPR^A Stock: A Spark That Could Fizzle

Outlook: Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the IIPR^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Prediction Modeling
3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

IIPR^A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of IIPR^A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Chi-Square)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IIPR^A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Ensemble Learning (ML)

Ensemble learning is a machine learning (ML) technique that combines multiple models to create a single model that is more accurate than any of the individual models. This is done by combining the predictions of the individual models, typically using a voting scheme or a weighted average.

Chi-Square

A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IIPR^A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IIPR^A Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Ensemble Learning (ML) based IIPR^A Stock Prediction Model

1. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
2. To calculate the change in the value of the hedged item for the purpose of measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity may use a derivative that would have terms that match the critical terms of the hedged item (this is commonly referred to as a 'hypothetical derivative'), and, for example for a hedge of a forecast transaction, would be calibrated using the hedged price (or rate) level. For example, if the hedge was for a two-sided risk at the current market level, the hypothetical derivative would represent a hypothetical forward contract that is calibrated to a value of nil at the time of designation of the hedging relationship. If the hedge was for example for a one-sided risk, the hypothetical derivative would represent the intrinsic value of a hypothetical option that at the time of designation of the hedging relationship is at the money if the hedged price level is the current market level, or out of the money if the hedged price level is above (or, for a hedge of a long position, below) the current market level. Using a hypothetical derivative is one possible way of calculating the change in the value of the hedged item. The hypothetical derivative replicates the hedged item and hence results in the same outcome as if that change in value was determined by a different approach. Hence, using a 'hypothetical derivative' is not a method in its own right but a mathematical expedient that can only be used to calculate the value of the hedged item. Consequently, a 'hypothetical derivative' cannot be used to include features in the value of the hedged item that only exist in the hedging instrument (but not in the hedged item). An example is debt denominated in a foreign currency (irrespective of whether it is fixed-rate or variable-rate debt). When using a hypothetical derivative to calculate the change in the value of such debt or the present value of the cumulative change in its cash flows, the hypothetical derivative cannot simply impute a charge for exchanging different currencies even though actual derivatives under which different currencies are exchanged might include such a charge (for example, cross-currency interest rate swaps).
3. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
4. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

IIPR^A Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	Ba3
Income Statement	B3	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Ba1	B3
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Ba2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Ba3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock prediction model is evaluated with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Chi-Square^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the IIPR^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 742 signals.

References

1. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
2. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
3. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
4. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
5. J. Peters, S. Vijayakumar, and S. Schaal. Natural actor-critic. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth European Conference on Machine Learning, pages 280–291, 2005.
6. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
7. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for IIPR^A stock?
A: IIPR^A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is IIPR^A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell IIPR^A Stock.
Q: Is Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. 9.00% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IIPR^A stock?
A: The consensus rating for IIPR^A is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for IIPR^A stock?
A: The prediction period for IIPR^A is 16 Weeks

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