Is HDN Stock Expected to Go Up?

Outlook: HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Lasso Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HDN stock is predictable in the short/long term. Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

HDN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of HDN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of HDN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.

Lasso Regression

Lasso regression, also known as L1 regularization, is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates and to induce sparsity in the model. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "lasso" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "lasso constant". Lasso regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression, as well as the problem of overfitting. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Overfitting occurs when a model is too closely fit to the training data, and as a result, it does not generalize well to new data.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

HDN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: HDN HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based HDN Stock Prediction Model

1. The underlying pool must contain one or more instruments that have contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding
2. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
3. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).
4. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

HDN HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	B2
Income Statement	Baa2	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Ba3
Leverage Ratios	Ba1	C
Cash Flow	Baa2	B1
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 estimated rating. HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the HDN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 820 signals.

References

1. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
3. M. Benaim, J. Hofbauer, and S. Sorin. Stochastic approximations and differential inclusions, Part II: Appli- cations. Mathematics of Operations Research, 31(4):673–695, 2006
4. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
5. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
6. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
7. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for HDN stock?
A: HDN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is HDN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy HDN Stock.
Q: Is HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HOMECO DAILY NEEDS REIT is Buy and is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of HDN stock?
A: The consensus rating for HDN is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for HDN stock?
A: The prediction period for HDN is 8 Weeks

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