LON:AADV Stock: A Cautionary Tale

Outlook: ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Spearman Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:AADV stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. How useful are statistical predictions?
2. Stock Rating
3. What is neural prediction?

LON:AADV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:AADV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:AADV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.

Spearman Correlation

Spearman correlation is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association between two variables. It is a rank-based correlation, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. Spearman correlation is calculated by first ranking the data for each variable, and then calculating the Pearson correlation between the ranks.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:AADV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:AADV ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Task Learning (ML) based LON:AADV Stock Prediction Model

1. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.
2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
3. For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.
4. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

LON:AADV ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba3
Income Statement	Baa2	C
Balance Sheet	C	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Baa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:AADV stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 730 signals.

References

1. J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
2. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
3. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
4. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
5. Athey S. 2017. Beyond prediction: using big data for policy problems. Science 355:483–85
6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
7. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:AADV stock?
A: LON:AADV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:AADV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:AADV Stock.
Q: Is ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ALBION DEVELOPMENT VCT PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:AADV stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:AADV is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:AADV stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:AADV is 6 Month

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