Modelling A.I. in Economics

PG1 Stock: Set a stop-loss order

Outlook: PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PG1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 13

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

PG1 Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PG1 stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PG1 stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Statistical Inference (ML)

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.

Logistic Regression

In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PG1 Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PG1 PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based PG1 Stock Prediction Model

  1. Fluctuation around a constant hedge ratio (and hence the related hedge ineffectiveness) cannot be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio in response to each particular outcome. Hence, in such circumstances, the change in the extent of offset is a matter of measuring and recognising hedge ineffectiveness but does not require rebalancing.
  2. If there is a hedging relationship between a non-derivative monetary asset and a non-derivative monetary liability, changes in the foreign currency component of those financial instruments are presented in profit or loss.
  3. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
  4. Conversely, if changes in the extent of offset indicate that the fluctuation is around a hedge ratio that is different from the hedge ratio that is currently used for that hedging relationship, or that there is a trend leading away from that hedge ratio, hedge ineffectiveness can be reduced by adjusting the hedge ratio, whereas retaining the hedge ratio would increasingly produce hedge ineffectiveness. Hence, in such circumstances, an entity must evaluate whether the hedging relationship reflects an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. If the hedge ratio is adjusted, it also affects the measurement and recognition of hedge ineffectiveness because, on rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship must be determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraph B6.5.8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

PG1 PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetCaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowB2B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa3B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating. PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PG1 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 528 signals.

References

  1. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  2. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  3. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
  4. Athey S, Blei D, Donnelly R, Ruiz F. 2017b. Counterfactual inference for consumer choice across many prod- uct categories. AEA Pap. Proc. 108:64–67
  5. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  6. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
  7. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PG1 stock?
A: PG1 stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is PG1 stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PG1 Stock.
Q: Is PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for PEARL GLOBAL LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PG1 stock?
A: The consensus rating for PG1 is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PG1 stock?
A: The prediction period for PG1 is 3 Month

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