RBA:TSX Stock: A Spark That Could Fizzle

Outlook: Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the RBA:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Dominated Move
2. Investment Risk
3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

RBA:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of RBA:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RBA:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)

Reinforcement machine learning (RL) is a type of machine learning where an agent learns to take actions in an environment in order to maximize a reward. The agent does this by trial and error, and is able to learn from its mistakes. RL is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including game playing, robotics, and finance.

Linear Regression

In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RBA:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RBA:TSX Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) based RBA:TSX Stock Prediction Model

1. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
2. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
3. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
4. IFRS 7 defines credit risk as 'the risk that one party to a financial instrument will cause a financial loss for the other party by failing to discharge an obligation'. The requirement in paragraph 5.7.7(a) relates to the risk that the issuer will fail to perform on that particular liability. It does not necessarily relate to the creditworthiness of the issuer. For example, if an entity issues a collateralised liability and a non-collateralised liability that are otherwise identical, the credit risk of those two liabilities will be different, even though they are issued by the same entity. The credit risk on the collateralised liability will be less than the credit risk of the non-collateralised liability. The credit risk for a collateralised liability may be close to zero.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

RBA:TSX Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba3
Income Statement	B2	C
Balance Sheet	B3	B1
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	B3
Cash Flow	Ba3	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated prediction model is evaluated with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the RBA:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 700 signals.

References

1. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
2. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
4. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
6. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
7. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for RBA:TSX stock?
A: RBA:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is RBA:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell RBA:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ritchie Bros. Auctioneers Incorporated is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RBA:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for RBA:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for RBA:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for RBA:TSX is 3 Month

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