SBS Stock Price Prediction

Outlook: Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares) is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SBS stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Short/Long Term Stocks
2. Prediction Modeling
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

SBS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of SBS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SBS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.

Polynomial Regression

Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

SBS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SBS Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares)
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) based SBS Stock Prediction Model

1. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.
2. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
3. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.
4. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

SBS Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares) Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B2
Income Statement	Baa2	C
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	B1
Cash Flow	Ba3	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares) is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating. Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares) prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SBS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 806 signals.

References

1. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
2. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
3. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
4. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
5. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
6. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
7. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for SBS stock?
A: SBS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is SBS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SBS Stock.
Q: Is Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Companhia de saneamento Basico Do Estado De Sao Paulo - Sabesp American Depositary Shares (Each repstg 250 Common Shares) is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SBS stock?
A: The consensus rating for SBS is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SBS stock?
A: The prediction period for SBS is 16 Weeks

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