Should You Buy Now or Wait? LON:LIO Stock Forecast

Outlook: LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LIO stock is predictable in the short/long term. In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

LON:LIO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LIO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Linear Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LIO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)

In a modular neural network (MNN), a DNN layer is a type of module that is used to learn complex relationships between input and output data. DNN layers are made up of a series of artificial neurons, which are connected to each other by weighted edges. The weights of the edges are adjusted during training to minimize the error between the network's predictions and the desired output. DNN layers are used in a variety of MNN applications, including natural language processing, speech recognition, and machine translation. In natural language processing, DNN layers are used to extract features from text data, such as the sentiment of a sentence or the topic of a conversation. In speech recognition, DNN layers are used to convert audio data into text data. In machine translation, DNN layers are used to translate text from one language to another.

Linear Regression

In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LIO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LIO LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) based LON:LIO Stock Prediction Model

1. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
2. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
3. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.
4. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

LON:LIO LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	Ba3
Income Statement	C	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Caa2	C
Cash Flow	Baa2	B2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba3	Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Linear Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:LIO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 552 signals.

References

1. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
2. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
4. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
5. Y. Chow and M. Ghavamzadeh. Algorithms for CVaR optimization in MDPs. In Advances in Neural Infor- mation Processing Systems, pages 3509–3517, 2014.
6. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
7. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LIO stock?
A: LON:LIO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Linear Regression
Q: Is LON:LIO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:LIO Stock.
Q: Is LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LIONTRUST ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LIO stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LIO is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LIO stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LIO is 8 Weeks

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