Should You Buy VLRS Right Now?

Outlook: Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the VLRS stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
2. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
3. Is Target price a good indicator?

VLRS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of VLRS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VLRS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.

Multiple Regression

Multiple regression is a statistical method that analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Multiple regression is a more complex statistical method than simple linear regression, which only analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and one independent variable. Multiple regression can be used to analyze more complex relationships between variables, and it can also be used to control for confounding variables. A confounding variable is a variable that is correlated with both the dependent variable and one or more of the independent variables. Confounding variables can distort the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Multiple regression can be used to control for confounding variables by including them in the model.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VLRS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VLRS Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) based VLRS Stock Prediction Model

1. The following example describes a situation in which an accounting mismatch would be created in profit or loss if the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability were presented in other comprehensive income. A mortgage bank provides loans to customers and funds those loans by selling bonds with matching characteristics (eg amount outstanding, repayment profile, term and currency) in the market. The contractual terms of the loan permit the mortgage customer to prepay its loan (ie satisfy its obligation to the bank) by buying the corresponding bond at fair value in the market and delivering that bond to the mortgage bank. As a result of that contractual prepayment right, if the credit quality of the bond worsens (and, thus, the fair value of the mortgage bank's liability decreases), the fair value of the mortgage bank's loan asset also decreases. The change in the fair value of the asset reflects the mortgage customer's contractual right to prepay the mortgage loan by buying the underlying bond at fair value (which, in this example, has decreased) and delivering the bond to the mortgage bank. Consequently, the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability (the bond) will be offset in profit or loss by a corresponding change in the fair value of a financial asset (the loan). If the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk were presented in other comprehensive income there would be an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. Consequently, the mortgage bank is required to present all changes in fair value of the liability (including the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk) in profit or loss.
2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.
3. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.
4. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

VLRS Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B1
Income Statement	Baa2	C
Balance Sheet	C	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	C	Ba2
Cash Flow	Caa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating. Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the VLRS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 77 out of 100 with 507 signals.

References

1. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
2. M. Sobel. The variance of discounted Markov decision processes. Applied Probability, pages 794–802, 1982
3. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
4. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
5. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
6. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
7. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for VLRS stock?
A: VLRS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is VLRS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell VLRS Stock.
Q: Is Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares each representing ten (10) Ordinary Participation Certificates is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VLRS stock?
A: The consensus rating for VLRS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for VLRS stock?
A: The prediction period for VLRS is 4 Weeks

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