WAFD Stock: Is It a Bubble?

Outlook: Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Ridge Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the WAFD stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Is now good time to invest?
2. Stock Rating
3. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?

WAFD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of WAFD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of WAFD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.

Ridge Regression

Ridge regression is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "ridge" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "ridge constant". Ridge regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Ridge regression can help to reduce the standard errors of the coefficients and to make the coefficients more stable.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

WAFD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: WAFD Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Instance Learning (ML) based WAFD Stock Prediction Model

1. Although the objective of an entity's business model may be to hold financial assets in order to collect contractual cash flows, the entity need not hold all of those instruments until maturity. Thus an entity's business model can be to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows even when sales of financial assets occur or are expected to occur in the future.
2. When designating a hedging relationship and on an ongoing basis, an entity shall analyse the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its term. This analysis (including any updates in accordance with paragraph B6.5.21 arising from rebalancing a hedging relationship) is the basis for the entity's assessment of meeting the hedge effectiveness requirements.
3. An entity shall apply this Standard for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity elects to apply this Standard early, it must disclose that fact and apply all of the requirements in this Standard at the same time (but see also paragraphs 7.1.2, 7.2.21 and 7.3.2). It shall also, at the same time, apply the amendments in Appendix C.
4. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

WAFD Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B2
Income Statement	Ba2	B3
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Ba1
Leverage Ratios	Ba1	Caa2
Cash Flow	B3	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Caa2	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating. Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the WAFD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 490 signals.

References

1. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
2. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
3. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
4. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
5. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
6. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
7. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for WAFD stock?
A: WAFD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is WAFD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell WAFD Stock.
Q: Is Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Washington Federal Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of WAFD stock?
A: The consensus rating for WAFD is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for WAFD stock?
A: The prediction period for WAFD is 6 Month

People also ask

⚐ What are the top stocks to invest in right now?
☵ What happens to stocks when they're delisted?