WAK Stock: A Risky Bet for Investors

Outlook: WA KAOLIN LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Lasso Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

WA KAOLIN LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the WAK stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market volatility analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market volatility analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is becoming more or less volatile. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Can statistics predict the future?
3. Probability Distribution

WAK Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider WA KAOLIN LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of WAK stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of WAK stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market volatility analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market volatility analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is becoming more or less volatile. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.

Lasso Regression

Lasso regression, also known as L1 regularization, is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates and to induce sparsity in the model. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "lasso" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "lasso constant". Lasso regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression, as well as the problem of overfitting. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Overfitting occurs when a model is too closely fit to the training data, and as a result, it does not generalize well to new data.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

WAK Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: WAK WA KAOLIN LIMITED
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) based WAK Stock Prediction Model

1. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.
2. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
3. When using historical credit loss experience in estimating expected credit losses, it is important that information about historical credit loss rates is applied to groups that are defined in a manner that is consistent with the groups for which the historical credit loss rates were observed. Consequently, the method used shall enable each group of financial assets to be associated with information about past credit loss experience in groups of financial assets with similar risk characteristics and with relevant observable data that reflects current conditions.
4. For the purpose of this Standard, reasonable and supportable information is that which is reasonably available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort, including information about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions. Information that is available for financial reporting purposes is considered to be available without undue cost or effort.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

WAK WA KAOLIN LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Baa2
Income Statement	C	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	Baa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba1	Baa2
Cash Flow	Baa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

WA KAOLIN LIMITED is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating. WA KAOLIN LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the WAK stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 86 out of 100 with 643 signals.

References

1. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
2. Akgiray, V. (1989), "Conditional heteroscedasticity in time series of stock returns: Evidence and forecasts," Journal of Business, 62, 55–80.
3. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
4. Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
5. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
6. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
7. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for WAK stock?
A: WAK stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Volatility Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is WAK stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold WAK Stock.
Q: Is WA KAOLIN LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for WA KAOLIN LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of WAK stock?
A: The consensus rating for WAK is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for WAK stock?
A: The prediction period for WAK is 16 Weeks

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