Modelling A.I. in Economics

FDMT Stock: Soars on Strong Earnings (Forecast)

Outlook: 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Supervised Machine Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FDMT stock is predictable in the short/long term. Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 39

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

FDMT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of FDMT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FDMT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.

Sign Test

The sign test is a non-parametric hypothesis test that is used to compare two paired samples. In a paired sample, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The sign test is a non-parametric test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The sign test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FDMT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FDMT 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Supervised Machine Learning (ML) based FDMT Stock Prediction Model

  1. For the avoidance of doubt, the effects of replacing the original counterparty with a clearing counterparty and making the associated changes as described in paragraph 6.5.6 shall be reflected in the measurement of the hedging instrument and therefore in the assessment of hedge effectiveness and the measurement of hedge effectiveness
  2. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).
  3. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.
  4. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

FDMT 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Income StatementB1Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowBaa2Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FDMT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 582 signals.

References

  1. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  3. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  4. D. Bertsekas. Min common/max crossing duality: A geometric view of conjugacy in convex optimization. Lab. for Information and Decision Systems, MIT, Tech. Rep. Report LIDS-P-2796, 2009
  5. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  6. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  7. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FDMT stock?
A: FDMT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is FDMT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy FDMT Stock.
Q: Is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for 4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FDMT stock?
A: The consensus rating for FDMT is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for FDMT stock?
A: The prediction period for FDMT is 6 Month

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