GEGGL Stock Forecast: A Sell For The Next 1 Year

Outlook: Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027 is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Spearman Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027 prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GEGGL stock is predictable in the short/long term. Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
2. Game Theory
3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

GEGGL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027 Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of GEGGL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Spearman Correlation)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year $\begin{array}{l}\int r^s\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GEGGL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Active Learning (ML)

Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.

Spearman Correlation

Spearman correlation is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association between two variables. It is a rank-based correlation, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. Spearman correlation is calculated by first ranking the data for each variable, and then calculating the Pearson correlation between the ranks.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GEGGL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GEGGL Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Active Learning (ML) based GEGGL Stock Prediction Model

1. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
2. As noted in paragraph B4.3.1, when an entity becomes a party to a hybrid contract with a host that is not an asset within the scope of this Standard and with one or more embedded derivatives, paragraph 4.3.3 requires the entity to identify any such embedded derivative, assess whether it is required to be separated from the host contract and, for those that are required to be separated, measure the derivatives at fair value at initial recognition and subsequently. These requirements can be more complex, or result in less reliable measures, than measuring the entire instrument at fair value through profit or loss. For that reason this Standard permits the entire hybrid contract to be designated as at fair value through profit or loss.
3. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
4. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

GEGGL Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027 Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B1
Income Statement	Caa2	B2
Balance Sheet	Caa2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Ba3	Ba2
Cash Flow	Ba2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	B2	Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027 is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating. Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027 prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GEGGL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 91 out of 100 with 871 signals.

References

1. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
2. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
3. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
4. Mikolov T, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013a. Efficient estimation of word representations in vector space. arXiv:1301.3781 [cs.CL]
5. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
6. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
7. Athey S, Mobius MM, Pál J. 2017c. The impact of aggregators on internet news consumption. Unpublished manuscript, Grad. School Bus., Stanford Univ., Stanford, CA

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for GEGGL stock?
A: GEGGL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is GEGGL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell GEGGL Stock.
Q: Is Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Great Elm Group Inc. 7.25% Notes due 2027 is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GEGGL stock?
A: The consensus rating for GEGGL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for GEGGL stock?
A: The prediction period for GEGGL is 1 Year

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