Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:RE. Stock: Maximize your return

Outlook: R.E.A. HOLDINGS PLC is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Paired T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


R.E.A. HOLDINGS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:RE. stock is predictable in the short/long term. Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 21

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. Can statistics predict the future?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

LON:RE. Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider R.E.A. HOLDINGS PLC Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:RE. stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:RE. stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Active Learning (ML)

Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.

Paired T-Test

A paired t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two paired samples. In a paired t-test, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The paired t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The paired t-test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:RE. Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:RE. R.E.A. HOLDINGS PLC
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Active Learning (ML) based LON:RE. Stock Prediction Model

  1. A similar example of a non-financial item is a specific type of crude oil from a particular oil field that is priced off the relevant benchmark crude oil. If an entity sells that crude oil under a contract using a contractual pricing formula that sets the price per barrel at the benchmark crude oil price minus CU10 with a floor of CU15, the entity can designate as the hedged item the entire cash flow variability under the sales contract that is attributable to the change in the benchmark crude oil price. However, the entity cannot designate a component that is equal to the full change in the benchmark crude oil price. Hence, as long as the forward price (for each delivery) does not fall below CU25, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread). However, if the forward price for any delivery falls below CU25, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread).
  2. However, the designation of the hedging relationship using the same hedge ratio as that resulting from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses shall not reflect an imbalance between the weightings of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that would in turn create hedge ineffectiveness (irrespective of whether recognised or not) that could result in an accounting outcome that would be inconsistent with the purpose of hedge accounting. Hence, for the purpose of designating a hedging relationship, an entity must adjust the hedge ratio that results from the quantities of the hedged item and the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses if that is needed to avoid such an imbalance
  3. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.
  4. An entity can rebut this presumption. However, it can do so only when it has reasonable and supportable information available that demonstrates that even if contractual payments become more than 30 days past due, this does not represent a significant increase in the credit risk of a financial instrument. For example when non-payment was an administrative oversight, instead of resulting from financial difficulty of the borrower, or the entity has access to historical evidence that demonstrates that there is no correlation between significant increases in the risk of a default occurring and financial assets on which payments are more than 30 days past due, but that evidence does identify such a correlation when payments are more than 60 days past due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

LON:RE. R.E.A. HOLDINGS PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B2
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2B1
Leverage RatiosBaa2Caa2
Cash FlowBaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  2. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. S&P 500: Is the Bull Market Ready to Run Out of Steam?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  3. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  4. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  5. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  6. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
  7. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:RE. stock?
A: LON:RE. stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is LON:RE. stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:RE. Stock.
Q: Is R.E.A. HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for R.E.A. HOLDINGS PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:RE. stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:RE. is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:RE. stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:RE. is 8 Weeks

Premium

  • Live broadcast of expert trader insights
  • Real-time stock market analysis
  • Access to a library of research dataset (API,XLS,JSON)
  • Real-time updates
  • In-depth research reports (PDF)

Login
This project is licensed under the license; additional terms may apply.