Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:XPS Stock: A Growth Stock with a Bright Future (Forecast)

Outlook: XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:XPS stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 23

Key Points

  1. Operational Risk
  2. How useful are statistical predictions?
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

LON:XPS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:XPS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:XPS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Task Learning (ML)

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.

Chi-Square

A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:XPS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:XPS XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Task Learning (ML) based LON:XPS Stock Prediction Model

  1. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
  2. Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio allows an entity to respond to changes in the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item that arise from their underlyings or risk variables. For example, a hedging relationship in which the hedging instrument and the hedged item have different but related underlyings changes in response to a change in the relationship between those two underlyings (for example, different but related reference indices, rates or prices). Hence, rebalancing allows the continuation of a hedging relationship in situations in which the relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item chang
  4. If a financial instrument is designated in accordance with paragraph 6.7.1 as measured at fair value through profit or loss after its initial recognition, or was previously not recognised, the difference at the time of designation between the carrying amount, if any, and the fair value shall immediately be recognised in profit or loss. For financial assets measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A, the cumulative gain or loss previously recognised in other comprehensive income shall immediately be reclassified from equity to profit or loss as a reclassification adjustment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

LON:XPS XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosB1Baa2
Cash FlowBa1B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating. XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:XPS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 550 signals.

References

  1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  2. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  3. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  4. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  5. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
  6. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  7. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:XPS stock?
A: LON:XPS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:XPS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:XPS Stock.
Q: Is XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for XPS PENSIONS GROUP PLC is Buy and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:XPS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:XPS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:XPS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:XPS is 1 Year

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