Modelling A.I. in Economics

PBI^B Stock: Future is Bright, but not Without Challenges

Outlook: Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043 is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Multiple Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PBI^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 45

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  3. Short/Long Term Stocks

PBI^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043 Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of PBI^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PBI^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for financial sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of financial sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of financial news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to make investment decisions, to identify trends in the market, and to target investors with relevant advertising.

Multiple Regression

Multiple regression is a statistical method that analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and multiple independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Multiple regression is a more complex statistical method than simple linear regression, which only analyzes the relationship between a dependent variable and one independent variable. Multiple regression can be used to analyze more complex relationships between variables, and it can also be used to control for confounding variables. A confounding variable is a variable that is correlated with both the dependent variable and one or more of the independent variables. Confounding variables can distort the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables. Multiple regression can be used to control for confounding variables by including them in the model.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PBI^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PBI^B Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) based PBI^B Stock Prediction Model

  1. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
  2. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.
  3. A firm commitment to acquire a business in a business combination cannot be a hedged item, except for foreign currency risk, because the other risks being hedged cannot be specifically identified and measured. Those other risks are general business risks.
  4. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

PBI^B Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043 Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Income StatementCCaa2
Balance SheetCCaa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCBa3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043 is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 estimated rating. Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043 prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the PBI^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 82 out of 100 with 539 signals.

References

  1. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
  2. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  3. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  4. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  6. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
  7. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PBI^B stock?
A: PBI^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is PBI^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PBI^B Stock.
Q: Is Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043 stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Pitney Bowes Inc 6.70% Notes Due 2043 is Buy and is assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PBI^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for PBI^B is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PBI^B stock?
A: The prediction period for PBI^B is 8 Weeks

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