Modelling A.I. in Economics

SDC Stock Price Prediction (Forecast)

Outlook: SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Beta
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SDC stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 21

Key Points

  1. Dominated Move
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. What is a prediction confidence?

SDC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of SDC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SDC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.

Beta

In statistics, beta (β) is a measure of the strength of the relationship between two variables. It is calculated as the slope of the line of best fit in a regression analysis. Beta can range from -1 to 1, with a value of 0 indicating no relationship between the two variables. A positive beta indicates that as one variable increases, the other variable also increases. A negative beta indicates that as one variable increases, the other variable decreases. For example, a study might find that there is a positive relationship between height and weight. This means that taller people tend to weigh more. The beta coefficient for this relationship would be positive.

 

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SDC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SDC SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based SDC Stock Prediction Model

  1. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  2. Alternatively, the entity may base the assessment on both types of information, ie qualitative factors that are not captured through the internal ratings process and a specific internal rating category at the reporting date, taking into consideration the credit risk characteristics at initial recognition, if both types of information are relevant.
  3. If a financial instrument that was previously recognised as a financial asset is measured at fair value through profit or loss and its fair value decreases below zero, it is a financial liability measured in accordance with paragraph 4.2.1. However, hybrid contracts with hosts that are assets within the scope of this Standard are always measured in accordance with paragraph 4.3.2.
  4. A portfolio of financial assets that is managed and whose performance is evaluated on a fair value basis (as described in paragraph 4.2.2(b)) is neither held to collect contractual cash flows nor held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. The entity is primarily focused on fair value information and uses that information to assess the assets' performance and to make decisions. In addition, a portfolio of financial assets that meets the definition of held for trading is not held to collect contractual cash flows or held both to collect contractual cash flows and to sell financial assets. For such portfolios, the collection of contractual cash flows is only incidental to achieving the business model's objective. Consequently, such portfolios of financial assets must be measured at fair value through profit or loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

SDC SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B3
Income StatementBa3C
Balance SheetBaa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB1C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B3 estimated rating. SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the SDC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 601 signals.

References

  1. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  2. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  3. J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
  4. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  5. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  6. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. MRNA: The Next Big Thing in mRNA Vaccines. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  7. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SDC stock?
A: SDC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is SDC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell SDC Stock.
Q: Is SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for SmileDirectClub Inc. Class A Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SDC stock?
A: The consensus rating for SDC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for SDC stock?
A: The prediction period for SDC is 4 Weeks

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