Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy AEL^B Right Now?

Outlook: American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AEL^B stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 26

Key Points

  1. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  2. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
  3. Market Outlook

AEL^B Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AEL^B stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEL^B stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Statistical Inference (ML)

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.

Linear Regression

In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AEL^B Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AEL^B American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based AEL^B Stock Prediction Model

  1. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
  2. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.
  3. IFRS 15, issued in May 2014, amended paragraphs 3.1.1, 4.2.1, 5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.7.6, B3.2.13, B5.7.1, C5 and C42 and deleted paragraph C16 and its related heading. Paragraphs 5.1.3 and 5.7.1A, and a definition to Appendix A, were added. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 15.
  4. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

AEL^B American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Income StatementBaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBaa2B1
Leverage RatiosBa3Ba1
Cash FlowBa3Caa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  2. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  3. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  4. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  5. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  6. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  7. Chernozhukov V, Newey W, Robins J. 2018c. Double/de-biased machine learning using regularized Riesz representers. arXiv:1802.08667 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AEL^B stock?
A: AEL^B stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is AEL^B stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AEL^B Stock.
Q: Is American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for American Equity Investment Life Holding Company Depositary Shares each representing a 1/1000th interest in a share of 6.625% Fixed-Rate Reset Non-Cumulative Preferred Stock Series B is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AEL^B stock?
A: The consensus rating for AEL^B is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AEL^B stock?
A: The prediction period for AEL^B is 3 Month

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