Should You Buy AUB Right Now?

Outlook: AUB GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Independent T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

AUB GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AUB stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
2. Can machine learning predict?
3. Which neural network is best for prediction?

AUB Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AUB GROUP LIMITED Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AUB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AUB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Statistical Inference (ML)

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.

Independent T-Test

An independent t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two independent samples. In an independent t-test, the data points in each sample are not related to each other. The independent t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The independent t-test is also a two-sample test, which means that it compares the means of two independent samples.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AUB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AUB AUB GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based AUB Stock Prediction Model

1. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
2. The assessment of whether lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised is based on significant increases in the likelihood or risk of a default occurring since initial recognition (irrespective of whether a financial instrument has been repriced to reflect an increase in credit risk) instead of on evidence of a financial asset being credit-impaired at the reporting date or an actual default occurring. Generally, there will be a significant increase in credit risk before a financial asset becomes credit-impaired or an actual default occurs.
3. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
4. The expected credit losses on a loan commitment shall be discounted using the effective interest rate, or an approximation thereof, that will be applied when recognising the financial asset resulting from the loan commitment. This is because for the purpose of applying the impairment requirements, a financial asset that is recognised following a draw down on a loan commitment shall be treated as a continuation of that commitment instead of as a new financial instrument. The expected credit losses on the financial asset shall therefore be measured considering the initial credit risk of the loan commitment from the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

AUB AUB GROUP LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	B1
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	B2
Leverage Ratios	Ba1	C
Cash Flow	Baa2	B3
Rates of Return and Profitability	Ba2	Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

AUB GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 estimated rating. AUB GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AUB stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 862 signals.

References

1. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
2. Bell RM, Koren Y. 2007. Lessons from the Netflix prize challenge. ACM SIGKDD Explor. Newsl. 9:75–79
3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
4. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
5. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
7. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AUB stock?
A: AUB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is AUB stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AUB Stock.
Q: Is AUB GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AUB GROUP LIMITED is Sell and is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AUB stock?
A: The consensus rating for AUB is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AUB stock?
A: The prediction period for AUB is 1 Year

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