Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy FVI:TSX Right Now? (Forecast)

Outlook: Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FVI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 41

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  3. Market Signals

FVI:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of FVI:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 1 Year R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FVI:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.

Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test

The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

FVI:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FVI:TSX Fortuna Silver Mines Inc.
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) based FVI:TSX Stock Prediction Model

  1. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.
  2. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.
  3. When designating risk components as hedged items, an entity considers whether the risk components are explicitly specified in a contract (contractually specified risk components) or whether they are implicit in the fair value or the cash flows of an item of which they are a part (noncontractually specified risk components). Non-contractually specified risk components can relate to items that are not a contract (for example, forecast transactions) or contracts that do not explicitly specify the component (for example, a firm commitment that includes only one single price instead of a pricing formula that references different underlyings)
  4. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

FVI:TSX Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Baa2
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBa3B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating. Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FVI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 724 signals.

References

  1. Knox SW. 2018. Machine Learning: A Concise Introduction. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley
  2. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  3. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
  4. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  5. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
  6. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  7. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for FVI:TSX stock?
A: FVI:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is FVI:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold FVI:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. is Hold and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FVI:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for FVI:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for FVI:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for FVI:TSX is 1 Year

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