Modelling A.I. in Economics

Should You Buy TSAT:TSX Right Now?

Outlook: Telesat Corporation is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Abstract

Telesat Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TSAT:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 26

Key Points

  1. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  2. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

TSAT:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Telesat Corporation Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TSAT:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TSAT:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Statistical Inference (ML)

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.

Sign Test

The sign test is a non-parametric hypothesis test that is used to compare two paired samples. In a paired sample, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The sign test is a non-parametric test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The sign test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TSAT:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TSAT:TSX Telesat Corporation
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based TSAT:TSX Stock Prediction Model

  1. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.
  2. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  3. An entity shall assess at the inception of the hedging relationship, and on an ongoing basis, whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements. At a minimum, an entity shall perform the ongoing assessment at each reporting date or upon a significant change in the circumstances affecting the hedge effectiveness requirements, whichever comes first. The assessment relates to expectations about hedge effectiveness and is therefore only forward-looking.
  4. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

TSAT:TSX Telesat Corporation Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba3
Income StatementB2C
Balance SheetCBa3
Leverage RatiosCaa2Baa2
Cash FlowCaa2Ba1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Conclusions

Telesat Corporation is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating. Telesat Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the TSAT:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 636 signals.

References

  1. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  2. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  3. Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
  4. Doudchenko N, Imbens GW. 2016. Balancing, regression, difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods: a synthesis. NBER Work. Pap. 22791
  5. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  6. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
  7. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TSAT:TSX stock?
A: TSAT:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Sign Test
Q: Is TSAT:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell TSAT:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Telesat Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Telesat Corporation is Sell and is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TSAT:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for TSAT:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for TSAT:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for TSAT:TSX is 3 Month

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