Modelling A.I. in Economics

ZIONP Stock: The Next Bubble?

Outlook: Zions Bancorporation N.A. Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Floating-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Deductive Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Lasso Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Zions Bancorporation N.A. Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Floating-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) prediction model is evaluated with Deductive Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ZIONP stock is predictable in the short/long term. Deductive inference is a type of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn based on a set of premises that are assumed to be true. In machine learning (ML), deductive inference can be used to create models that can make predictions about new data based on a set of known rules. Deductive inference is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of deductive inference algorithms, including decision trees, rule-based systems, and expert systems. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 1

Key Points

  1. Trust metric by Neural Network
  2. Operational Risk
  3. How do you pick a stock?

ZIONP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Zions Bancorporation N.A. Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Floating-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) Decision Process with Deductive Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ZIONP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ZIONP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Deductive Inference (ML)

Deductive inference is a type of reasoning in which a conclusion is drawn based on a set of premises that are assumed to be true. In machine learning (ML), deductive inference can be used to create models that can make predictions about new data based on a set of known rules. Deductive inference is a supervised learning algorithm, which means that it requires labeled data to train. The labeled data is used to train the model to make predictions about new data. There are many different types of deductive inference algorithms, including decision trees, rule-based systems, and expert systems. Each type of algorithm has its own strengths and weaknesses.

Lasso Regression

Lasso regression, also known as L1 regularization, is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates and to induce sparsity in the model. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "lasso" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "lasso constant". Lasso regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression, as well as the problem of overfitting. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Overfitting occurs when a model is too closely fit to the training data, and as a result, it does not generalize well to new data.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ZIONP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ZIONP Zions Bancorporation N.A. Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Floating-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock)
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Deductive Inference (ML) based ZIONP Stock Prediction Model

  1. When measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity shall consider the time value of money. Consequently, the entity determines the value of the hedged item on a present value basis and therefore the change in the value of the hedged item also includes the effect of the time value of money.
  2. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
  3. An entity's estimate of expected credit losses on loan commitments shall be consistent with its expectations of drawdowns on that loan commitment, ie it shall consider the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down within 12 months of the reporting date when estimating 12-month expected credit losses, and the expected portion of the loan commitment that will be drawn down over the expected life of the loan commitment when estimating lifetime expected credit losses.
  4. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ZIONP Zions Bancorporation N.A. Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Floating-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Baa2
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetB3Baa2
Leverage RatiosB3Ba1
Cash FlowB2Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  2. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
  3. S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
  4. R. Howard and J. Matheson. Risk sensitive Markov decision processes. Management Science, 18(7):356– 369, 1972
  5. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  7. White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ZIONP stock?
A: ZIONP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is ZIONP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ZIONP Stock.
Q: Is Zions Bancorporation N.A. Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Floating-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Zions Bancorporation N.A. Depositary Shares (Each representing 1/40th Interest in a Share of Series A Floating-Rate Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) is Sell and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ZIONP stock?
A: The consensus rating for ZIONP is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ZIONP stock?
A: The prediction period for ZIONP is 3 Month

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