Modelling A.I. in Economics

ADC^A Stock: The Wild Ride Continues

Outlook: Agree Realty Corporation Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a 4.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : ElasticNet Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Agree Realty Corporation Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a 4.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ADC^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements. According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 29

Key Points

  1. How useful are statistical predictions?
  2. Investment Risk
  3. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm

ADC^A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Agree Realty Corporation Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a 4.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ADC^A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ADC^A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.

ElasticNet Regression

Elastic net regression is a type of regression analysis that combines the benefits of ridge regression and lasso regression. It is a regularized regression method that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates, induce sparsity in the model, and reduce overfitting. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients and the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty terms are controlled by two parameters, called the ridge constant and the lasso constant. Elastic net regression can be used to address the problems of multicollinearity, overfitting, and sensitivity to outliers. It is a more flexible method than ridge regression or lasso regression, and it can often achieve better results.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ADC^A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ADC^A Agree Realty Corporation Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a 4.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) based ADC^A Stock Prediction Model

  1. If there are changes in circumstances that affect hedge effectiveness, an entity may have to change the method for assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements in order to ensure that the relevant characteristics of the hedging relationship, including the sources of hedge ineffectiveness, are still captured.
  2. The fact that a derivative is in or out of the money when it is designated as a hedging instrument does not in itself mean that a qualitative assessment is inappropriate. It depends on the circumstances whether hedge ineffectiveness arising from that fact could have a magnitude that a qualitative assessment would not adequately capture.
  3. In accordance with the hedge effectiveness requirements, the hedge ratio of the hedging relationship must be the same as that resulting from the quantity of the hedged item that the entity actually hedges and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge that quantity of hedged item. Hence, if an entity hedges less than 100 per cent of the exposure on an item, such as 85 per cent, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from 85 per cent of the exposure and the quantity of the hedging instrument that the entity actually uses to hedge those 85 per cent. Similarly, if, for example, an entity hedges an exposure using a nominal amount of 40 units of a financial instrument, it shall designate the hedging relationship using a hedge ratio that is the same as that resulting from that quantity of 40 units (ie the entity must not use a hedge ratio based on a higher quantity of units that it might hold in total or a lower quantity of units) and the quantity of the hedged item that it actually hedges with those 40 units.
  4. For a financial guarantee contract, the entity is required to make payments only in the event of a default by the debtor in accordance with the terms of the instrument that is guaranteed. Accordingly, cash shortfalls are the expected payments to reimburse the holder for a credit loss that it incurs less any amounts that the entity expects to receive from the holder, the debtor or any other party. If the asset is fully guaranteed, the estimation of cash shortfalls for a financial guarantee contract would be consistent with the estimations of cash shortfalls for the asset subject to the guarantee

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ADC^A Agree Realty Corporation Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a 4.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetBaa2C
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba3
Cash FlowCB2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
  2. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  3. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  4. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  5. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  6. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2016a. Double machine learning for treatment and causal parameters. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  7. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ADC^A stock?
A: ADC^A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is ADC^A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADC^A Stock.
Q: Is Agree Realty Corporation Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a 4.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Agree Realty Corporation Depositary Shares each representing 1/1000th of a 4.250% Series A Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ADC^A stock?
A: The consensus rating for ADC^A is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ADC^A stock?
A: The prediction period for ADC^A is 4 Weeks

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