Modelling A.I. in Economics

ALTG^A Stock: Is It a Bubble?

Outlook: Alta Equipment Group Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing 1/1000th in a share of 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : ElasticNet Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Alta Equipment Group Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing 1/1000th in a share of 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ALTG^A stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance. According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 16

Key Points

  1. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  2. Dominated Move
  3. How do you pick a stock?

ALTG^A Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Alta Equipment Group Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing 1/1000th in a share of 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ALTG^A stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ALTG^A stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Multi-Instance Learning (ML)

Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.

ElasticNet Regression

Elastic net regression is a type of regression analysis that combines the benefits of ridge regression and lasso regression. It is a regularized regression method that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates, induce sparsity in the model, and reduce overfitting. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients and the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty terms are controlled by two parameters, called the ridge constant and the lasso constant. Elastic net regression can be used to address the problems of multicollinearity, overfitting, and sensitivity to outliers. It is a more flexible method than ridge regression or lasso regression, and it can often achieve better results.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ALTG^A Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ALTG^A Alta Equipment Group Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing 1/1000th in a share of 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock)
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Instance Learning (ML) based ALTG^A Stock Prediction Model

  1. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
  2. An entity shall apply Prepayment Features with Negative Compensation (Amendments to IFRS 9) retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.30–7.2.34
  3. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.
  4. Rebalancing does not apply if the risk management objective for a hedging relationship has changed. Instead, hedge accounting for that hedging relationship shall be discontinued (despite that an entity might designate a new hedging relationship that involves the hedging instrument or hedged item of the previous hedging relationship as described in paragraph B6.5.28).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ALTG^A Alta Equipment Group Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing 1/1000th in a share of 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Income StatementCaa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2B2
Leverage RatiosB1C
Cash FlowBaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  2. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  3. Ashley, R. (1988), "On the relative worth of recent macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 363–376.
  4. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
  5. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  6. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  7. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ALTG^A stock?
A: ALTG^A stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is ALTG^A stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ALTG^A Stock.
Q: Is Alta Equipment Group Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing 1/1000th in a share of 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Alta Equipment Group Inc. Depositary Shares (each representing 1/1000th in a share of 10% Series A Cumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock) is Sell and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ALTG^A stock?
A: The consensus rating for ALTG^A is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ALTG^A stock?
A: The prediction period for ALTG^A is 1 Year

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