Modelling A.I. in Economics

AOI:TSX Stock: The Can That's Slowly Rotting Away

Outlook: Africa Oil Corp. is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Linear Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Africa Oil Corp. prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the AOI:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 24

Key Points

  1. Stock Rating
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

AOI:TSX Stock Price Forecast

We consider Africa Oil Corp. Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AOI:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AOI:TSX Africa Oil Corp.
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Linear Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AOI:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of AOI:TSX stock holders

a:Best response for AOI:TSX target price


Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 In statistics, linear regression is a method for estimating the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. The dependent variable is the variable that is being predicted, and the independent variables are the variables that are used to predict the dependent variable. Linear regression assumes that the relationship between the dependent variable and the independent variables is linear. This means that the dependent variable can be represented as a straight line function of the independent variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AOI:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Active Learning (ML) based AOI:TSX Stock Prediction Model

  1. If a put option written by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the associated liability is measured at the option exercise price plus the time value of the option. The measurement of the asset at fair value is limited to the lower of the fair value and the option exercise price because the entity has no right to increases in the fair value of the transferred asset above the exercise price of the option. This ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the put option obligation. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU120, the option exercise price is CU100 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU105 (CU100 + CU5) and the carrying amount of the asset is CU100 (in this case the option exercise price).
  2. When a group of items that constitute a net position is designated as a hedged item, an entity shall designate the overall group of items that includes the items that can make up the net position. An entity is not permitted to designate a non-specific abstract amount of a net position. For example, an entity has a group of firm sale commitments in nine months' time for FC100 and a group of firm purchase commitments in 18 months' time for FC120. The entity cannot designate an abstract amount of a net position up to FC20. Instead, it must designate a gross amount of purchases and a gross amount of sales that together give rise to the hedged net position. An entity shall designate gross positions that give rise to the net position so that the entity is able to comply with the requirements for the accounting for qualifying hedging relationships.
  3. An entity that first applies these amendments at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.31–7.2.34.
  4. In cases such as those described in the preceding paragraph, to designate, at initial recognition, the financial assets and financial liabilities not otherwise so measured as at fair value through profit or loss may eliminate or significantly reduce the measurement or recognition inconsistency and produce more relevant information. For practical purposes, the entity need not enter into all of the assets and liabilities giving rise to the measurement or recognition inconsistency at exactly the same time. A reasonable delay is permitted provided that each transaction is designated as at fair value through profit or loss at its initial recognition and, at that time, any remaining transactions are expected to occur.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

AOI:TSX Africa Oil Corp. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B1
Income StatementCaa2B3
Balance SheetBaa2Ba1
Leverage RatiosBaa2C
Cash FlowBaa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  2. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  3. Banerjee, A., J. J. Dolado, J. W. Galbraith, D. F. Hendry (1993), Co-integration, Error-correction, and the Econometric Analysis of Non-stationary Data. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  4. Jiang N, Li L. 2016. Doubly robust off-policy value evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33rd International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 652–61. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  6. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  7. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AOI:TSX stock?
A: AOI:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is AOI:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AOI:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Africa Oil Corp. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Africa Oil Corp. is Hold and is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AOI:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for AOI:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AOI:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for AOI:TSX is 8 Weeks



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