**Outlook:**BanColombia S.A. Common Stock is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.

**AUC Score :**

**Short-Term Revised**

^{1}:**Dominant Strategy :**Buy

**Time series to forecast n:** for

^{2}

**Methodology :**Supervised Machine Learning (ML)

**Hypothesis Testing :**Factor

**Surveillance :**Major exchange and OTC

^{1}The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

^{2}Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

BanColombia S.A. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Factor

^{1,2,3,4}and it is concluded that the CIB stock is predictable in the short/long term. Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.

^{5}

**According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

## Key Points

- What is prediction model?
- Decision Making
- Trust metric by Neural Network

## CIB Stock Price Forecast

We consider BanColombia S.A. Common Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of CIB stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**CIB BanColombia S.A. Common Stock

**Time series to forecast:**1 Year

**According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy**

^{6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 1 Year $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CIB stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CIB stock holders

a:Best response for CIB target price

Supervised machine learning (ML) is a type of machine learning where a model is trained on labeled data. This means that the data has been tagged with the correct output for the input data. The model learns to predict the output for new input data based on the labeled data. Supervised ML is a powerful tool that can be used for a variety of tasks, including classification, regression, and forecasting. Classification tasks involve predicting the category of an input data, such as whether an email is spam or not. Regression tasks involve predicting a numerical value for an input data, such as the price of a house. Forecasting tasks involve predicting future values for a time series, such as the sales of a product.

^{5}In statistics, a factor is a variable that can influence the value of another variable. Factors can be categorical or continuous. Categorical factors have a limited number of possible values, such as gender (male or female) or blood type (A, B, AB, or O). Continuous factors can have an infinite number of possible values, such as height or weight. Factors can be used to explain the variation in a dependent variable. For example, a study might find that there is a relationship between gender and height. In this case, gender would be the independent variable, height would be the dependent variable, and the factor would be gender.

^{6,7}

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

### CIB Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%**

### Financial Data Adjustments for Supervised Machine Learning (ML) based CIB Stock Prediction Model

- Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
- Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.
- A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
- Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

### CIB BanColombia S.A. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | B1 |

Income Statement | Baa2 | Ba1 |

Balance Sheet | Baa2 | Caa2 |

Leverage Ratios | Caa2 | B2 |

Cash Flow | Baa2 | Baa2 |

Rates of Return and Profitability | Caa2 | C |

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.

How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

## References

- K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
- R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
- Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
- Thomas P, Brunskill E. 2016. Data-efficient off-policy policy evaluation for reinforcement learning. In Pro- ceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 2139–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
- A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
- Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
- Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Tesla Stock: Hold for Now, But Watch for Opportunities. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for CIB stock?A: CIB stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Factor

Q: Is CIB stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy CIB Stock.

Q: Is BanColombia S.A. Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for BanColombia S.A. Common Stock is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 estimated rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of CIB stock?

A: The consensus rating for CIB is Buy.

Q: What is the prediction period for CIB stock?

A: The prediction period for CIB is 1 Year

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