Modelling A.I. in Economics

G50 Stock Forecast: A Sell For The Next 4 Weeks

Outlook: GOLD 50 LIMITED is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Lasso Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

GOLD 50 LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the G50 stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 12

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

G50 Stock Price Forecast

We consider GOLD 50 LIMITED Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of G50 stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: G50 GOLD 50 LIMITED
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

F(Lasso Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of G50 stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of G50 stock holders

a:Best response for G50 target price

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 Lasso regression, also known as L1 regularization, is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates and to induce sparsity in the model. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "lasso" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "lasso constant". Lasso regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression, as well as the problem of overfitting. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Overfitting occurs when a model is too closely fit to the training data, and as a result, it does not generalize well to new data.6,7


For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

G50 Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based G50 Stock Prediction Model

  1. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.
  2. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
  3. When designating a hedging relationship and on an ongoing basis, an entity shall analyse the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its term. This analysis (including any updates in accordance with paragraph B6.5.21 arising from rebalancing a hedging relationship) is the basis for the entity's assessment of meeting the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

G50 GOLD 50 LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosBa1C
Cash FlowB1Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?


  1. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  2. J. Baxter and P. Bartlett. Infinite-horizon policy-gradient estimation. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Re- search, 15:319–350, 2001.
  3. Artis, M. J. W. Zhang (1990), "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, 6, 349–362.
  4. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
  5. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  6. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  7. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for G50 stock?
A: G50 stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is G50 stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell G50 Stock.
Q: Is GOLD 50 LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GOLD 50 LIMITED is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of G50 stock?
A: The consensus rating for G50 is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for G50 stock?
A: The prediction period for G50 is 4 Weeks
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