Modelling A.I. in Economics

GAL:TSXV Stock: A Cautionary Tale

Outlook: Galantas Gold Corporation is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Galantas Gold Corporation prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GAL:TSXV stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 36

Key Points

  1. Prediction Modeling
  2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
  3. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?

GAL:TSXV Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Galantas Gold Corporation Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of GAL:TSXV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GAL:TSXV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.

Logistic Regression

In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GAL:TSXV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GAL:TSXV Galantas Gold Corporation
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based GAL:TSXV Stock Prediction Model

  1. When measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity shall consider the time value of money. Consequently, the entity determines the value of the hedged item on a present value basis and therefore the change in the value of the hedged item also includes the effect of the time value of money.
  2. Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  3. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.
  4. IFRS 16, issued in January 2016, amended paragraphs 2.1, 5.5.15, B4.3.8, B5.5.34 and B5.5.46. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 16.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

GAL:TSXV Galantas Gold Corporation Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Mnih A, Hinton GE. 2007. Three new graphical models for statistical language modelling. In International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 641–48. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  2. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
  3. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  4. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Can Neural Networks Predict Stock Market?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  5. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  6. Cheung, Y. M.D. Chinn (1997), "Further investigation of the uncertain unit root in GNP," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 15, 68–73.
  7. LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GAL:TSXV stock?
A: GAL:TSXV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is GAL:TSXV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend GAL:TSXV Stock.
Q: Is Galantas Gold Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Galantas Gold Corporation is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GAL:TSXV stock?
A: The consensus rating for GAL:TSXV is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the prediction period for GAL:TSXV stock?
A: The prediction period for GAL:TSXV is 3 Month

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