Modelling A.I. in Economics

GFL:TSX Stock: Set a stop-loss order

Outlook: GFL Environmental Inc. is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


GFL Environmental Inc. prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the GFL:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 26

Key Points

  1. Game Theory
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

GFL:TSX Stock Price Forecast

We consider GFL Environmental Inc. Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of GFL:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: GFL:TSX GFL Environmental Inc.
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of GFL:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of GFL:TSX stock holders

a:Best response for GFL:TSX target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 Statistical hypothesis testing is a process used to determine whether there is enough evidence to support a claim about a population based on a sample. The process involves making two hypotheses, a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis, and then collecting data and using statistical tests to determine which hypothesis is more likely to be true. The null hypothesis is the statement that there is no difference between the population and the sample. The alternative hypothesis is the statement that there is a difference between the population and the sample. The statistical test is used to calculate a p-value, which is the probability of obtaining the observed data or more extreme data if the null hypothesis is true. A p-value of less than 0.05 is typically considered to be statistically significant, which means that there is less than a 5% chance of obtaining the observed data or more extreme data if the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

GFL:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based GFL:TSX Stock Prediction Model

  1. An entity shall apply Prepayment Features with Negative Compensation (Amendments to IFRS 9) retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.30–7.2.34
  2. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.
  3. For the purpose of this Standard, reasonable and supportable information is that which is reasonably available at the reporting date without undue cost or effort, including information about past events, current conditions and forecasts of future economic conditions. Information that is available for financial reporting purposes is considered to be available without undue cost or effort.
  4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income subsequent changes in the fair value of particular investments in equity instruments. Such an investment is not a monetary item. Accordingly, the gain or loss that is presented in other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 5.7.5 includes any related foreign exchange component.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

GFL:TSX GFL Environmental Inc. Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Baa2
Income StatementBa2B1
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  2. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
  3. T. Shardlow and A. Stuart. A perturbation theory for ergodic Markov chains and application to numerical approximations. SIAM journal on numerical analysis, 37(4):1120–1137, 2000
  4. Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
  5. Rumelhart DE, Hinton GE, Williams RJ. 1986. Learning representations by back-propagating errors. Nature 323:533–36
  6. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  7. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for GFL:TSX stock?
A: GFL:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is GFL:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell GFL:TSX Stock.
Q: Is GFL Environmental Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for GFL Environmental Inc. is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of GFL:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for GFL:TSX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for GFL:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for GFL:TSX is 4 Weeks
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