ICL Stock: A Bubble Waiting to Burst

Jorgenson, Dale W.; Weitzman, Martin L.; ZXhang, Yoshua X; Haxo, Yann M; Mat , Ying X

Outlook: ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Polynomial Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ICL stock is predictable in the short/long term. Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.⁵ According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

What is neural prediction?
Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
How can neural networks improve predictions?

ICL Stock Price Forecast

We consider ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ICL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ICL ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

F(Polynomial Regression)^6,7=

\begin{matrix} p_{a 1} & p_{a 2} & \dots & p_{1 n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{j 1} & p_{j 2} & \dots & p_{j n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{k 1} & p_{k 2} & \dots & p_{k n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{n 1} & p_{n 2} & \dots & p_{n n} \end{matrix}

X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month

\begin{array}{l} \int r^{s} rs \end{array}

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ICL stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ICL stock holders

a:Best response for ICL target price

Modular neural networks (MNNs) are a type of artificial neural network that can be used for market direction analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying patterns in data or predicting future price movements. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks.In the context of market direction analysis, MNNs can be used to identify patterns in market data that suggest that the market is likely to move in a particular direction. This information can then be used to make predictions about future price movements.⁵ Polynomial regression is a type of regression analysis that uses a polynomial function to model the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. Polynomial functions are mathematical functions that have a polynomial term, which is a term that is raised to a power greater than 1. In polynomial regression, the dependent variable is modeled as a polynomial function of the independent variables. The degree of the polynomial function is determined by the researcher. The higher the degree of the polynomial function, the more complex the model will be.^6,7

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ICL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) based ICL Stock Prediction Model

For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.
If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.
In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ICL ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Ba3
Income Statement	Baa2	Baa2
Balance Sheet	Baa2	B2
Leverage Ratios	C	Baa2
Cash Flow	Caa2	Caa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ICL stock?
A: ICL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is ICL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ICL Stock.
Q: Is ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares is Sell and is assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ICL stock?
A: The consensus rating for ICL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ICL stock?
A: The prediction period for ICL is 3 Month

What did you think about the prediction? (Insufficient-Outstanding)

Tell us how we can improve PredictiveAI