Modelling A.I. in Economics

ITQRW Stock: Are We Headed for a Recession?

Outlook: Itiquira Acquisition Corp. Warrant is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Active Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Pearson Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Itiquira Acquisition Corp. Warrant prediction model is evaluated with Active Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ITQRW stock is predictable in the short/long term. Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 16

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

ITQRW Stock Price Forecast

We consider Itiquira Acquisition Corp. Warrant Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ITQRW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ITQRW Itiquira Acquisition Corp. Warrant
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Pearson Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ITQRW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ITQRW stock holders

a:Best response for ITQRW target price


Active learning (AL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which the model actively queries the user for labels on data points. This allows the model to learn more efficiently, as it is only learning about the data points that are most informative.5 Pearson correlation, also known as Pearson's product-moment correlation, is a measure of the linear relationship between two variables. It is a statistical measure that assesses the strength and direction of a linear relationship between two variables. The sign of the correlation coefficient indicates the direction of the relationship, while the magnitude of the correlation coefficient indicates the strength of the relationship. A correlation coefficient of 0.9 indicates a strong positive correlation, while a correlation coefficient of 0.2 indicates a weak positive correlation.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ITQRW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Active Learning (ML) based ITQRW Stock Prediction Model

  1. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.
  2. The significance of a change in the credit risk since initial recognition depends on the risk of a default occurring as at initial recognition. Thus, a given change, in absolute terms, in the risk of a default occurring will be more significant for a financial instrument with a lower initial risk of a default occurring compared to a financial instrument with a higher initial risk of a default occurring.
  3. An entity may use practical expedients when measuring expected credit losses if they are consistent with the principles in paragraph 5.5.17. An example of a practical expedient is the calculation of the expected credit losses on trade receivables using a provision matrix. The entity would use its historical credit loss experience (adjusted as appropriate in accordance with paragraphs B5.5.51–B5.5.52) for trade receivables to estimate the 12-month expected credit losses or the lifetime expected credit losses on the financial assets as relevant. A provision matrix might, for example, specify fixed provision rates depending on the number of days that a trade receivable is past due (for example, 1 per cent if not past due, 2 per cent if less than 30 days past due, 3 per cent if more than 30 days but less than 90 days past due, 20 per cent if 90–180 days past due etc). Depending on the diversity of its customer base, the entity would use appropriate groupings if its historical credit loss experience shows significantly different loss patterns for different customer segments. Examples of criteria that might be used to group assets include geographical region, product type, customer rating, collateral or trade credit insurance and type of customer (such as wholesale or retail)
  4. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ITQRW Itiquira Acquisition Corp. Warrant Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba1
Income StatementCB2
Balance SheetCBaa2
Leverage RatiosCCaa2
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  2. G. Shani, R. Brafman, and D. Heckerman. An MDP-based recommender system. In Proceedings of the Eigh- teenth conference on Uncertainty in artificial intelligence, pages 453–460. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc., 2002
  3. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
  4. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  5. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
  6. V. Borkar. An actor-critic algorithm for constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 54(3):207–213, 2005.
  7. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ITQRW stock?
A: ITQRW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is ITQRW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ITQRW Stock.
Q: Is Itiquira Acquisition Corp. Warrant stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Itiquira Acquisition Corp. Warrant is Hold and is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ITQRW stock?
A: The consensus rating for ITQRW is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ITQRW stock?
A: The prediction period for ITQRW is 8 Weeks
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