Modelling A.I. in Economics

JRV Stock: How can i grow my money?

Outlook: JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Paired T-Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the JRV stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 40

Key Points

  1. How do you pick a stock?
  2. Is Target price a good indicator?
  3. Why do we need predictive models?

JRV Stock Price Forecast

We consider JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of JRV stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JRV JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Paired T-Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JRV stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of JRV stock holders

a:Best response for JRV target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 A paired t-test is a statistical test that compares the means of two paired samples. In a paired t-test, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The paired t-test is a parametric test, which means that it assumes that the data is normally distributed. The paired t-test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

JRV Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based JRV Stock Prediction Model

  1. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.
  2. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).
  3. The business model may be to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows even if the entity sells financial assets when there is an increase in the assets' credit risk. To determine whether there has been an increase in the assets' credit risk, the entity considers reasonable and supportable information, including forward looking information. Irrespective of their frequency and value, sales due to an increase in the assets' credit risk are not inconsistent with a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows because the credit quality of financial assets is relevant to the entity's ability to collect contractual cash flows. Credit risk management activities that are aimed at minimising potential credit losses due to credit deterioration are integral to such a business model. Selling a financial asset because it no longer meets the credit criteria specified in the entity's documented investment policy is an example of a sale that has occurred due to an increase in credit risk. However, in the absence of such a policy, the entity may demonstrate in other ways that the sale occurred due to an increase in credit risk.
  4. Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

JRV JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Income StatementB2Ba1
Balance SheetBa3B2
Leverage RatiosB3Baa2
Cash FlowB1C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Ba3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  2. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  3. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  4. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  5. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
  6. Bai J. 2003. Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions. Econometrica 71:135–71
  7. Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for JRV stock?
A: JRV stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is JRV stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy JRV Stock.
Q: Is JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JERVOIS GLOBAL LIMITED is Buy and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JRV stock?
A: The consensus rating for JRV is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for JRV stock?
A: The prediction period for JRV is 3 Month



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