Modelling A.I. in Economics

KGD Stock: A Downfall?

Outlook: KULA GOLD LIMITED is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Multi-Task Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Spearman Correlation
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

KULA GOLD LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the KGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.5 According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 13

Key Points

  1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. What is statistical models in machine learning?

KGD Stock Price Forecast

We consider KULA GOLD LIMITED Decision Process with Multi-Task Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of KGD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

F(Spearman Correlation)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of KGD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of KGD stock holders

a:Best response for KGD target price

Multi-task learning (MTL) is a machine learning (ML) method in which multiple related tasks are learned simultaneously. This can be done by sharing features and weights between the tasks. MTL has been shown to improve the performance of each task, compared to learning each task independently.5 Spearman correlation is a nonparametric measure of the strength and direction of association between two variables. It is a rank-based correlation, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. Spearman correlation is calculated by first ranking the data for each variable, and then calculating the Pearson correlation between the ranks.6,7


For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

KGD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Task Learning (ML) based KGD Stock Prediction Model

  1. Compared to a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows, this business model will typically involve greater frequency and value of sales. This is because selling financial assets is integral to achieving the business model's objective instead of being only incidental to it. However, there is no threshold for the frequency or value of sales that must occur in this business model because both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets are integral to achieving its objective.
  2. A net position is eligible for hedge accounting only if an entity hedges on a net basis for risk management purposes. Whether an entity hedges in this way is a matter of fact (not merely of assertion or documentation). Hence, an entity cannot apply hedge accounting on a net basis solely to achieve a particular accounting outcome if that would not reflect its risk management approach. Net position hedging must form part of an established risk management strategy. Normally this would be approved by key management personnel as defined in IAS 24.
  3. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  4. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

KGD KULA GOLD LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Income StatementB2B2
Balance SheetCCaa2
Leverage RatiosBa1Ba3
Cash FlowBa3C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCBaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?


  1. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
  2. Batchelor, R. P. Dua (1993), "Survey vs ARCH measures of inflation uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics Statistics, 55, 341–353.
  3. Wan M, Wang D, Goldman M, Taddy M, Rao J, et al. 2017. Modeling consumer preferences and price sensitiv- ities from large-scale grocery shopping transaction logs. In Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 1103–12. New York: ACM
  4. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
  5. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  6. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  7. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for KGD stock?
A: KGD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is KGD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold KGD Stock.
Q: Is KULA GOLD LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for KULA GOLD LIMITED is Hold and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of KGD stock?
A: The consensus rating for KGD is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for KGD stock?
A: The prediction period for KGD is 16 Weeks
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