Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:BARC Stock: A Risky Investment (Forecast)

Outlook: BARCLAYS PLC is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


BARCLAYS PLC prediction model is evaluated with Transductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:BARC stock is predictable in the short/long term. Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning (ML) method in which the model is trained on both labeled and unlabeled data. The goal of transductive learning is to predict the labels of the unlabeled data. Transductive learning is a hybrid of inductive and semi-supervised learning. Inductive learning algorithms are trained on labeled data only, while semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained on a combination of labeled and unlabeled data. Transductive learning algorithms can achieve better performance than inductive learning algorithms on tasks where there is a small amount of labeled data. This is because transductive learning algorithms can use the unlabeled data to help them learn the relationships between the features and the labels.5 According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Graph 10

Key Points

  1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  2. What is prediction in deep learning?
  3. Game Theory

LON:BARC Stock Price Forecast

We consider BARCLAYS PLC Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BARC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BARC BARCLAYS PLC
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 3 Month i = 1 n r i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BARC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of LON:BARC stock holders

a:Best response for LON:BARC target price


Transductive learning is a supervised machine learning (ML) method in which the model is trained on both labeled and unlabeled data. The goal of transductive learning is to predict the labels of the unlabeled data. Transductive learning is a hybrid of inductive and semi-supervised learning. Inductive learning algorithms are trained on labeled data only, while semi-supervised learning algorithms are trained on a combination of labeled and unlabeled data. Transductive learning algorithms can achieve better performance than inductive learning algorithms on tasks where there is a small amount of labeled data. This is because transductive learning algorithms can use the unlabeled data to help them learn the relationships between the features and the labels.5 The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BARC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Transductive Learning (ML) based LON:BARC Stock Prediction Model

  1. Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
  2. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.
  3. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight and the restated financial statements reflect all the requirements in this Standard. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  4. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

LON:BARC BARCLAYS PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2Baa2
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetCaa2B1
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  2. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]
  3. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  4. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  5. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  7. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BARC stock?
A: LON:BARC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is LON:BARC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BARC Stock.
Q: Is BARCLAYS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BARCLAYS PLC is Hold and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Baa2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BARC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BARC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BARC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BARC is 3 Month

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