Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:EAT Stock Forecast: A Speculative Trend For The Next 16 Weeks

Outlook: EUROPEAN ASSETS TRUST PLC is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Chi-Square
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


EUROPEAN ASSETS TRUST PLC prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the LON:EAT stock is predictable in the short/long term. CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications. According to price forecasts for 16 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 30

Key Points

  1. Why do we need predictive models?
  2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  3. What is neural prediction?

LON:EAT Stock Price Forecast

We consider EUROPEAN ASSETS TRUST PLC Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:EAT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:EAT EUROPEAN ASSETS TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast: 16 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 16 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:EAT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of LON:EAT stock holders

a:Best response for LON:EAT target price


CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.A chi-squared test is a statistical hypothesis test that assesses whether observed frequencies in a sample differ significantly from expected frequencies. It is one of the most widely used statistical tests in the social sciences and in many areas of observational research. The chi-squared test is a non-parametric test, meaning that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. This makes it a versatile tool that can be used to analyze a wide variety of data. There are two main types of chi-squared tests: the chi-squared goodness of fit test and the chi-squared test of independence.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:EAT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) based LON:EAT Stock Prediction Model

  1. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
  2. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods only if it is possible to do so without the use of hindsight. If an entity restates prior periods, the restated financial statements must reflect all the requirements in this Standard for the affected financial instruments. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.
  3. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

LON:EAT EUROPEAN ASSETS TRUST PLC Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba2
Income StatementB2C
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Baa2
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCB2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  2. Alpaydin E. 2009. Introduction to Machine Learning. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  3. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  4. M. Ono, M. Pavone, Y. Kuwata, and J. Balaram. Chance-constrained dynamic programming with application to risk-aware robotic space exploration. Autonomous Robots, 39(4):555–571, 2015
  5. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  6. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
  7. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:EAT stock?
A: LON:EAT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:EAT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend LON:EAT Stock.
Q: Is EUROPEAN ASSETS TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for EUROPEAN ASSETS TRUST PLC is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:EAT stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:EAT is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:EAT stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:EAT is 16 Weeks



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