Modelling A.I. in Economics

NKX Stock: A Risky Investment, But One with a lot of Potential

Outlook: Nuveen California AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Nuveen California AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the NKX stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising. According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 24

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  3. Can statistics predict the future?

NKX Stock Price Forecast

We consider Nuveen California AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of NKX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NKX Nuveen California AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NKX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of NKX stock holders

a:Best response for NKX target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.The sign test is a non-parametric hypothesis test that is used to compare two paired samples. In a paired sample, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The sign test is a non-parametric test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The sign test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NKX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) based NKX Stock Prediction Model

  1. For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.
  2. An embedded prepayment option in an interest-only or principal-only strip is closely related to the host contract provided the host contract (i) initially resulted from separating the right to receive contractual cash flows of a financial instrument that, in and of itself, did not contain an embedded derivative, and (ii) does not contain any terms not present in the original host debt contract.
  3. For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
  4. Hedge effectiveness is the extent to which changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument offset changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedged item (for example, when the hedged item is a risk component, the relevant change in fair value or cash flows of an item is the one that is attributable to the hedged risk). Hedge ineffectiveness is the extent to which the changes in the fair value or the cash flows of the hedging instrument are greater or less than those on the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

NKX Nuveen California AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B2
Income StatementBa3C
Balance SheetBaa2B3
Leverage RatiosCaa2C
Cash FlowBaa2B1
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  2. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  3. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
  4. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
  5. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  7. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. S&P 500: Is the Bull Market Ready to Run Out of Steam?. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NKX stock?
A: NKX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is NKX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NKX Stock.
Q: Is Nuveen California AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nuveen California AMT-Free Quality Municipal Income Fund is Sell and is assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NKX stock?
A: The consensus rating for NKX is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NKX stock?
A: The prediction period for NKX is 8 Weeks



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