Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share Forecast & Analysis

Name: Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share Forecast & Analysis
Uploaded: Wednesday, November 1, 2023
Duration: 37 min 14 s
Description: Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share Forecast & Analysis

Outlook: Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Sign Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BABA stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.⁵ According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) for BABA stock price prediction process.
Sign Test
What is a prediction confidence?
What is the use of Markov decision process?
Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

BABA Stock Price Forecast

We consider Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of BABA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

F(Sign Test)^6,7=

\begin{matrix} p_{a 1} & p_{a 2} & \dots & p_{1 n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{j 1} & p_{j 2} & \dots & p_{j n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{k 1} & p_{k 2} & \dots & p_{k n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{n 1} & p_{n 2} & \dots & p_{n n} \end{matrix}

X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 3 Month

R = (\begin{matrix} 1 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 \end{matrix})

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BABA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of BABA stock holders

a:Best response for BABA target price

A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.⁵ The sign test is a non-parametric hypothesis test that is used to compare two paired samples. In a paired sample, each data point in one sample is paired with a data point in the other sample. The pairs are typically related in some way, such as before and after measurements, or measurements from the same subject under different conditions. The sign test is a non-parametric test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The sign test is also a dependent samples test, which means that the data points in each pair are correlated.^6,7

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

BABA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) based BABA Stock Prediction Model

An entity that first applies these amendments after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.32–7.2.34. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
Leverage is a contractual cash flow characteristic of some financial assets. Leverage increases the variability of the contractual cash flows with the result that they do not have the economic characteristics of interest. Stand-alone option, forward and swap contracts are examples of financial assets that include such leverage. Thus, such contracts do not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) and cannot be subsequently measured at amortised cost or fair value through other comprehensive income.
For floating-rate financial assets and floating-rate financial liabilities, periodic re-estimation of cash flows to reflect the movements in the market rates of interest alters the effective interest rate. If a floating-rate financial asset or a floating-rate financial liability is recognised initially at an amount equal to the principal receivable or payable on maturity, re-estimating the future interest payments normally has no significant effect on the carrying amount of the asset or the liability.
If a variable-rate financial liability bears interest of (for example) three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points (with a floor at zero basis points), an entity can designate as the hedged item the change in the cash flows of that entire liability (ie three-month LIBOR minus 20 basis points—including the floor) that is attributable to changes in LIBOR. Hence, as long as the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability does not fall below 20 basis points, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a liability that bears interest at three-month LIBOR with a zero or positive spread. However, if the three-month LIBOR forward curve for the remaining life of that liability (or a part of it) falls below 20 basis points, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a liability that bears interest at threemonth LIBOR with a zero or positive spread.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B2
Income Statement	Caa2	C
Balance Sheet	Baa2	B2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Caa2
Cash Flow	B2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	B1	Caa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

Krizhevsky A, Sutskever I, Hinton GE. 2012. Imagenet classification with deep convolutional neural networks. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 25, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 1097–105. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
Bickel P, Klaassen C, Ritov Y, Wellner J. 1998. Efficient and Adaptive Estimation for Semiparametric Models. Berlin: Springer
M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
Morris CN. 1983. Parametric empirical Bayes inference: theory and applications. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 78:47–55
Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for BABA stock?
A: BABA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Sign Test
Q: Is BABA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy BABA Stock.
Q: Is Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Alibaba Group Holding Limited American Depositary Shares each representing eight Ordinary share is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BABA stock?
A: The consensus rating for BABA is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for BABA stock?
A: The prediction period for BABA is 3 Month

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