Modelling A.I. in Economics

ARDC Stock: Is It a Bubble? (Forecast)

Outlook: Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc. Common Shares is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : SellBuy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc. Common Shares prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ARDC stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellBuy

Graph 9

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) for ARDC stock price prediction process.
  2. Statistical Hypothesis Testing
  3. Which neural network is best for prediction?
  4. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  5. Can neural networks predict stock market?

ARDC Stock Price Forecast

We consider Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc. Common Shares Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of ARDC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ARDC Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc. Common Shares
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: SellBuy


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 6 Month R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ARDC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ARDC stock holders

a:Best response for ARDC target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for social media sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of social media sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of social media posts, such as tweets, Facebook posts, and Instagram stories. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 Statistical hypothesis testing is a process used to determine whether there is enough evidence to support a claim about a population based on a sample. The process involves making two hypotheses, a null hypothesis and an alternative hypothesis, and then collecting data and using statistical tests to determine which hypothesis is more likely to be true. The null hypothesis is the statement that there is no difference between the population and the sample. The alternative hypothesis is the statement that there is a difference between the population and the sample. The statistical test is used to calculate a p-value, which is the probability of obtaining the observed data or more extreme data if the null hypothesis is true. A p-value of less than 0.05 is typically considered to be statistically significant, which means that there is less than a 5% chance of obtaining the observed data or more extreme data if the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

ARDC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) based ARDC Stock Prediction Model

  1. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
  2. IFRS 17, issued in May 2017, amended paragraphs 2.1, B2.1, B2.4, B2.5 and B4.1.30, and added paragraph 3.3.5. Amendments to IFRS 17, issued in June 2020, further amended paragraph 2.1 and added paragraphs 7.2.36‒7.2.42. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 17.
  3. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
  4. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ARDC Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc. Common Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2Ba2
Income StatementCaa2Ba2
Balance SheetCaa2C
Leverage RatiosCB1
Cash FlowB3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB3Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
  2. Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
  3. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  4. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  5. Andrews, D. W. K. (1993), "Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point," Econometrica, 61, 821–856.
  6. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  7. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is ARDC stock expected to rise?
A: ARDC stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing and it is concluded that dominant strategy for ARDC stock is SellBuy
Q: Is ARDC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to SellBuy ARDC Stock.
Q: Is Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund Inc. Common Shares is SellBuy and is assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ARDC stock?
A: The consensus rating for ARDC is SellBuy.
Q: What is the forecast for ARDC stock?
A: ARDC target price forecast: SellBuy

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