ASML Stock: The Wild Ride Continues

Name: ASML Stock: The Wild Ride Continues
Uploaded: Saturday, November 18, 2023
Duration: 37 min 14 s
Description: ASML Stock: The Wild Ride Continues

Outlook: ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised¹ :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks²
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Factor
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

¹The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

²Time series is updated based on short-term trends.

Summary

ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Factor^1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ASML stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.⁵ According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

Statistical Inference (ML) for ASML stock price prediction process.
Factor
Operational Risk
Is Target price a good indicator?
Buy, Sell and Hold Signals

ASML Stock Price Forecast

We consider ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ASML stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ASML ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

F(Factor)^6,7=

\begin{matrix} p_{a 1} & p_{a 2} & \dots & p_{1 n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{j 1} & p_{j 2} & \dots & p_{j n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{k 1} & p_{k 2} & \dots & p_{k n} \\ ⋮ \\ p_{n 1} & p_{n 2} & \dots & p_{n n} \end{matrix}

X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month

R = (\begin{matrix} 1 & 0 & 0 \\ 0 & 1 & 0 \\ 0 & 0 & 1 \end{matrix})

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ASML stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ASML stock holders

a:Best response for ASML target price

Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.⁵ In statistics, a factor is a variable that can influence the value of another variable. Factors can be categorical or continuous. Categorical factors have a limited number of possible values, such as gender (male or female) or blood type (A, B, AB, or O). Continuous factors can have an infinite number of possible values, such as height or weight. Factors can be used to explain the variation in a dependent variable. For example, a study might find that there is a relationship between gender and height. In this case, gender would be the independent variable, height would be the dependent variable, and the factor would be gender.^6,7

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ASML Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based ASML Stock Prediction Model

For some types of fair value hedges, the objective of the hedge is not primarily to offset the fair value change of the hedged item but instead to transform the cash flows of the hedged item. For example, an entity hedges the fair value interest rate risk of a fixed-rate debt instrument using an interest rate swap. The entity's hedge objective is to transform the fixed-interest cash flows into floating interest cash flows. This objective is reflected in the accounting for the hedging relationship by accruing the net interest accrual on the interest rate swap in profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a net position (for example, a net position of a fixed-rate asset and a fixed-rate liability), this net interest accrual must be presented in a separate line item in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. This is to avoid the grossing up of a single instrument's net gains or losses into offsetting gross amounts and recognising them in different line items (for example, this avoids grossing up a net interest receipt on a single interest rate swap into gross interest revenue and gross interest expense).
A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.
There are two types of components of nominal amounts that can be designated as the hedged item in a hedging relationship: a component that is a proportion of an entire item or a layer component. The type of component changes the accounting outcome. An entity shall designate the component for accounting purposes consistently with its risk management objective.
The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ASML ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B2
Income Statement	Caa2	B3
Balance Sheet	B2	C
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	B1
Cash Flow	Ba2	B1
Rates of Return and Profitability	C	C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

LeCun Y, Bengio Y, Hinton G. 2015. Deep learning. Nature 521:436–44
Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
Gentzkow M, Kelly BT, Taddy M. 2017. Text as data. NBER Work. Pap. 23276
G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
Jorgenson, D.W., Weitzman, M.L., ZXhang, Y.X., Haxo, Y.M. and Mat, Y.X., 2023. Apple's Stock Price: How News Affects Volatility. AC Investment Research Journal, 220(44).
Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is ASML stock expected to rise?
A: ASML stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Factor and it is concluded that dominant strategy for ASML stock is Sell
Q: Is ASML stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ASML Stock.
Q: Is ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ASML Holding N.V. New York Registry Shares is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ASML stock?
A: The consensus rating for ASML is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for ASML stock?
A: ASML target price forecast: Sell

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