Modelling A.I. in Economics

BIS Stock: The Can That's Slowly Rotting Away

Outlook: BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Multi-Instance Learning (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Logistic Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED prediction model is evaluated with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the BIS stock is predictable in the short/long term. Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.5 According to price forecasts for 6 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 35

Key Points

  1. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  2. Operational Risk
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

BIS Stock Price Forecast

We consider BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED Decision Process with Multi-Instance Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of BIS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: BIS BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED
Time series to forecast: 6 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Logistic Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Instance Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ 6 Month R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of BIS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of BIS stock holders

a:Best response for BIS target price


Multi-instance learning (MIL) is a machine learning (ML) problem where a dataset consists of multiple instances, and each instance is associated with a single label. The goal of MIL is to learn a model that can predict the label of a new instance based on the labels of the instances that it is similar to. MIL is a challenging problem because the instances in a dataset are not labeled individually. This means that the model cannot simply learn a mapping from the features of an instance to its label. Instead, the model must learn a way to combine the features of multiple instances to predict the label of a new instance.5 In statistics, logistic regression is a type of regression analysis used when the dependent variable is categorical. Logistic regression is a probability model that predicts the probability of an event occurring based on a set of independent variables. In logistic regression, the dependent variable is represented as a binary variable, such as "yes" or "no," "true" or "false," or "sick" or "healthy." The independent variables can be continuous or categorical variables.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

BIS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Multi-Instance Learning (ML) based BIS Stock Prediction Model

  1. In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.
  2. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.
  3. That the transferee is unlikely to sell the transferred asset does not, of itself, mean that the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. However, if a put option or guarantee constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset, then the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. For example, if a put option or guarantee is sufficiently valuable it constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset because the transferee would, in practice, not sell the transferred asset to a third party without attaching a similar option or other restrictive conditions. Instead, the transferee would hold the transferred asset so as to obtain payments under the guarantee or put option. Under these circumstances the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset.
  4. Hedging relationships that qualified for hedge accounting in accordance with IAS 39 that also qualify for hedge accounting in accordance with the criteria of this Standard (see paragraph 6.4.1), after taking into account any rebalancing of the hedging relationship on transition (see paragraph 7.2.25(b)), shall be regarded as continuing hedging relationships.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

BIS BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2B3
Income StatementB3C
Balance SheetCC
Leverage RatiosBa3B1
Cash FlowCaa2B2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  2. Breiman L. 1993. Better subset selection using the non-negative garotte. Tech. Rep., Univ. Calif., Berkeley
  3. Mullainathan S, Spiess J. 2017. Machine learning: an applied econometric approach. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:87–106
  4. Barrett, C. B. (1997), "Heteroscedastic price forecasting for food security management in developing countries," Oxford Development Studies, 25, 225–236.
  5. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  6. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
  7. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for BIS stock?
A: BIS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Instance Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is BIS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell BIS Stock.
Q: Is BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for BISALLOY STEEL GROUP LIMITED is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term B3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of BIS stock?
A: The consensus rating for BIS is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for BIS stock?
A: The prediction period for BIS is 6 Month
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