Modelling A.I. in Economics

CPSS Stock: The Next Bubble? (Forecast)

Outlook: Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)
Hypothesis Testing : Stepwise Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the CPSS stock is predictable in the short/long term. A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 According to price forecasts for 1 Year period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 6

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) for CPSS stock price prediction process.
  2. Stepwise Regression
  3. What is a prediction confidence?
  4. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
  5. Is now good time to invest?

CPSS Stock Price Forecast

We consider Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of CPSS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CPSS Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 1 Year

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Stepwise Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ 1 Year i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CPSS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of CPSS stock holders

a:Best response for CPSS target price


A modular neural network (MNN) is a type of artificial neural network that can be used for news feed sentiment analysis. MNNs are made up of multiple smaller neural networks, called modules. Each module is responsible for learning a specific task, such as identifying sentiment in text or identifying patterns in data. The modules are then combined to form a single neural network that can perform multiple tasks. In the context of news feed sentiment analysis, MNNs can be used to identify the sentiment of news articles, social media posts, and other forms of online content. This information can then be used to filter out irrelevant or unwanted content, to identify trends in public opinion, and to target users with relevant advertising.5 Stepwise regression is a method of variable selection in which variables are added or removed from a model one at a time, based on their statistical significance. There are two main types of stepwise regression: forward selection and backward elimination. In forward selection, variables are added to the model one at a time, starting with the variable with the highest F-statistic. The F-statistic is a measure of how much improvement in the model is gained by adding the variable. Variables are added to the model until no variable adds a statistically significant improvement to the model.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do PredictiveAI algorithms actually work?

CPSS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) based CPSS Stock Prediction Model

  1. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  2. Rebalancing is accounted for as a continuation of the hedging relationship in accordance with paragraphs B6.5.9–B6.5.21. On rebalancing, the hedge ineffectiveness of the hedging relationship is determined and recognised immediately before adjusting the hedging relationship.
  3. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.39–7.2.42. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
  4. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

CPSS Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Income StatementCaa2B3
Balance SheetBaa2Baa2
Leverage RatiosCCaa2
Cash FlowBaa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCCaa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  2. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  3. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
  4. Imbens GW, Lemieux T. 2008. Regression discontinuity designs: a guide to practice. J. Econom. 142:615–35
  5. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  6. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  7. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is CPSS stock expected to rise?
A: CPSS stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (Market News Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for CPSS stock is Sell
Q: Is CPSS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell CPSS Stock.
Q: Is Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Consumer Portfolio Services Inc. Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CPSS stock?
A: The consensus rating for CPSS is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for CPSS stock?
A: CPSS target price forecast: Sell

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