Modelling A.I. in Economics

DHR Stock: A Bubble Waiting to Burst

Outlook: Danaher Corporation Common Stock is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Danaher Corporation Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the DHR stock is predictable in the short/long term. CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.5 According to price forecasts for 3 Month period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Graph 12

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) for DHR stock price prediction process.
  2. Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
  3. Nash Equilibria
  4. Game Theory
  5. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?

DHR Stock Price Forecast

We consider Danaher Corporation Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of DHR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: DHR Danaher Corporation Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 3 Month

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 3 Month r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of DHR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of DHR stock holders

a:Best response for DHR target price


CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.5 The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

DHR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) based DHR Stock Prediction Model

  1. If a call option right retained by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at fair value, the asset continues to be measured at its fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the option exercise price less the time value of the option if the option is in or at the money, or (ii) the fair value of the transferred asset less the time value of the option if the option is out of the money. The adjustment to the measurement of the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the call option right. For example, if the fair value of the underlying asset is CU80, the option exercise price is CU95 and the time value of the option is CU5, the carrying amount of the associated liability is CU75 (CU80 – CU5) and the carrying amount of the transferred asset is CU80 (ie its fair value)
  2. There is a rebuttable presumption that unless inflation risk is contractually specified, it is not separately identifiable and reliably measurable and hence cannot be designated as a risk component of a financial instrument. However, in limited cases, it is possible to identify a risk component for inflation risk that is separately identifiable and reliably measurable because of the particular circumstances of the inflation environment and the relevant debt market
  3. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.
  4. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

DHR Danaher Corporation Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Income StatementB3Baa2
Balance SheetB1B1
Leverage RatiosB2Ba1
Cash FlowB1Ba3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  2. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
  3. L. Panait and S. Luke. Cooperative multi-agent learning: The state of the art. Autonomous Agents and Multi-Agent Systems, 11(3):387–434, 2005.
  4. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  5. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  6. V. Borkar. Q-learning for risk-sensitive control. Mathematics of Operations Research, 27:294–311, 2002.
  7. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is DHR stock expected to rise?
A: DHR stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for DHR stock is Sell
Q: Is DHR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell DHR Stock.
Q: Is Danaher Corporation Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Danaher Corporation Common Stock is Sell and is assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of DHR stock?
A: The consensus rating for DHR is Sell.
Q: What is the forecast for DHR stock?
A: DHR target price forecast: Sell
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