Modelling A.I. in Economics

ETG Stock: Future is Bright, But the Stock May Be Overvalued

Outlook: Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Global Dividend Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)
Hypothesis Testing : Ridge Regression
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Global Dividend Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the ETG stock is predictable in the short/long term. Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 According to price forecasts for 8 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Graph 6

Key Points

  1. Statistical Inference (ML) for ETG stock price prediction process.
  2. Ridge Regression
  3. Is Target price a good indicator?
  4. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  5. What is prediction in deep learning?

ETG Stock Price Forecast

We consider Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Global Dividend Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ETG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ETG Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Global Dividend Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest
Time series to forecast: 8 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy


F(Ridge Regression)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ 8 Weeks i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ETG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of ETG stock holders

a:Best response for ETG target price


Statistical inference is a process of drawing conclusions about a population based on data from a sample of that population. In machine learning (ML), statistical inference is used to make predictions about new data based on data that has already been seen.5 Ridge regression is a type of regression analysis that adds a penalty to the least squares objective function in order to reduce the variance of the estimates. This is done by adding a term to the objective function that is proportional to the sum of the squares of the coefficients. The penalty term is called the "ridge" penalty, and it is controlled by a parameter called the "ridge constant". Ridge regression can be used to address the problem of multicollinearity in linear regression. Multicollinearity occurs when two or more independent variables are highly correlated. This can cause the standard errors of the coefficients to be large, and it can also cause the coefficients to be unstable. Ridge regression can help to reduce the standard errors of the coefficients and to make the coefficients more stable.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

ETG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Statistical Inference (ML) based ETG Stock Prediction Model

  1. It would not be acceptable to designate only some of the financial assets and financial liabilities giving rise to the inconsistency as at fair value through profit or loss if to do so would not eliminate or significantly reduce the inconsistency and would therefore not result in more relevant information. However, it would be acceptable to designate only some of a number of similar financial assets or similar financial liabilities if doing so achieves a significant reduction (and possibly a greater reduction than other allowable designations) in the inconsistency. For example, assume an entity has a number of similar financial liabilities that sum to CU100 and a number of similar financial assets that sum to CU50 but are measured on a different basis. The entity may significantly reduce the measurement inconsistency by designating at initial recognition all of the assets but only some of the liabilities (for example, individual liabilities with a combined total of CU45) as at fair value through profit or loss. However, because designation as at fair value through profit or loss can be applied only to the whole of a financial instrument, the entity in this example must designate one or more liabilities in their entirety. It could not designate either a component of a liability (eg changes in value attributable to only one risk, such as changes in a benchmark interest rate) or a proportion (ie percentage) of a liability.
  2. Subject to the conditions in paragraphs 4.1.5 and 4.2.2, this Standard allows an entity to designate a financial asset, a financial liability, or a group of financial instruments (financial assets, financial liabilities or both) as at fair value through profit or loss provided that doing so results in more relevant information.
  3. Accordingly the date of the modification shall be treated as the date of initial recognition of that financial asset when applying the impairment requirements to the modified financial asset. This typically means measuring the loss allowance at an amount equal to 12-month expected credit losses until the requirements for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses in paragraph 5.5.3 are met. However, in some unusual circumstances following a modification that results in derecognition of the original financial asset, there may be evidence that the modified financial asset is credit-impaired at initial recognition, and thus, the financial asset should be recognised as an originated credit-impaired financial asset. This might occur, for example, in a situation in which there was a substantial modification of a distressed asset that resulted in the derecognition of the original financial asset. In such a case, it may be possible for the modification to result in a new financial asset which is credit-impaired at initial recognition.
  4. If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

ETG Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Global Dividend Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Income StatementBaa2C
Balance SheetB3Ba2
Leverage RatiosB2Caa2
Cash FlowBa1B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBa1Ba1

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  2. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  3. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  4. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
  5. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. Sutton RS, Barto AG. 1998. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  7. Nie X, Wager S. 2019. Quasi-oracle estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects. arXiv:1712.04912 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is ETG stock expected to rise?
A: ETG stock prediction model is evaluated with Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression and it is concluded that dominant strategy for ETG stock is Buy
Q: Is ETG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy ETG Stock.
Q: Is Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Global Dividend Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Eaton Vance Tax-Advantaged Global Dividend Income Fund Common Shares of Beneficial Interest is Buy and is assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ETG stock?
A: The consensus rating for ETG is Buy.
Q: What is the forecast for ETG stock?
A: ETG target price forecast: Buy

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