Modelling A.I. in Economics

FTDR Stock Forecast: A Speculative Trend For The Next 4 Weeks

Outlook: Frontdoor Inc. Common Stock is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
AUC Score : What is AUC Score?
Short-Term Revised1 :
Dominant Strategy : Speculative Trend
Time series to forecast n: for Weeks2
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)
Hypothesis Testing : Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Surveillance : Major exchange and OTC

1The accuracy of the model is being monitored on a regular basis.(15-minute period)

2Time series is updated based on short-term trends.


Summary

Frontdoor Inc. Common Stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and it is concluded that the FTDR stock is predictable in the short/long term. CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.5 According to price forecasts for 4 Weeks period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend

Graph 50

Key Points

  1. Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) for FTDR stock price prediction process.
  2. Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
  3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  4. Operational Risk
  5. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

FTDR Stock Price Forecast

We consider Frontdoor Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of FTDR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: FTDR Frontdoor Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast: 4 Weeks

According to price forecasts, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Speculative Trend


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ 4 Weeks S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of FTDR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move of FTDR stock holders

a:Best response for FTDR target price


CNN layers are a powerful tool for extracting features from images. They are able to learn to detect patterns in images that are not easily detected by humans. This makes them well-suited for a variety of MNN applications.5 The Wilcoxon rank-sum test, also known as the Mann-Whitney U test, is a non-parametric test that is used to compare the medians of two independent samples. It is a rank-based test, which means that it does not assume that the data is normally distributed. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated by first ranking the data from both samples, and then finding the sum of the ranks for one of the samples. The Wilcoxon rank-sum test statistic is then calculated by subtracting the sum of the ranks for one sample from the sum of the ranks for the other sample. The p-value for the Wilcoxon rank-sum test is calculated using a table of critical values. The p-value is the probability of obtaining a test statistic at least as extreme as the one observed, assuming that the null hypothesis is true.6,7

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do Predictive A.I. algorithms actually work?

FTDR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) Strategic Interaction Table

Strategic Interaction Table Legend:

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Financial Data Adjustments for Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) based FTDR Stock Prediction Model

  1. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
  2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
  3. In accordance with paragraph 4.1.3(a), principal is the fair value of the financial asset at initial recognition. However that principal amount may change over the life of the financial asset (for example, if there are repayments of principal).
  4. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

FTDR Frontdoor Inc. Common Stock Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2Ba3
Income StatementBa2Baa2
Balance SheetBaa2B1
Leverage RatiosBaa2B2
Cash FlowBa2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB1C

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

References

  1. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
  2. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  3. K. Boda, J. Filar, Y. Lin, and L. Spanjers. Stochastic target hitting time and the problem of early retirement. Automatic Control, IEEE Transactions on, 49(3):409–419, 2004
  4. Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
  5. Robins J, Rotnitzky A. 1995. Semiparametric efficiency in multivariate regression models with missing data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 90:122–29
  6. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
  7. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: Is FTDR stock expected to rise?
A: FTDR stock prediction model is evaluated with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test and it is concluded that dominant strategy for FTDR stock is Speculative Trend
Q: Is FTDR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Speculative Trend FTDR Stock.
Q: Is Frontdoor Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Frontdoor Inc. Common Stock is Speculative Trend and is assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term Ba3 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of FTDR stock?
A: The consensus rating for FTDR is Speculative Trend.
Q: What is the forecast for FTDR stock?
A: FTDR target price forecast: Speculative Trend
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